AI Servers to Reach 78% of Global Server Value by 2028, Up From 57% in 2025
Global server value TAM, 2025-2028E ｜ AI server revenue mix rises from 57% in 2025 to 78% by 2028
2026-09 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 36.
Hyperscaler Capex Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth Peaks at 11pp in 2026
Estimated hyperscaler capex contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth ｜ Peaks at 11pp in 2026 before depreciation drags it to -1pp by 2028
NVIDIA AI Server Power Rises From ~2.2KW on the A100 to Over 30KW on Rubin Ultra
NVIDIA GPU generations: server power and MLCC specs ｜ Server wattage climbs from about 2.2KW on the A100 to over 30KW on the 2027 Rubin Ultra
US 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.43%, Highest Since 2004
US 30-year government bond yield, monthly ｜ Now 5.434%, up from the 2020 low to the highest since 2004
S&P 600 Small Caps Break Below the 50-Day Average as Relative Strength Fades
S&P 600 with moving averages and its ratio to the S&P 500 ｜ Small caps break below the 50-day average, with relative strength rolling over from a mid-year high
Share of S&P 500 Stocks With Negative Beta Spikes to 45%, Far Above the 2000 Peak
Share of S&P 500 stocks with a negative beta, 1990-2026 ｜ 3-month beta now 45%, well above the ~18% dot-com bubble peak
Tokyo Stock Exchange All-Market Daily Turnover Hits About ¥12tn in June 2026
TSE all-market daily average turnover, ¥mn ｜ About ¥12tn in June 2026, roughly 2.5x the ¥4.85tn a year earlier
Share of S&P 500 Stocks With Negative Beta Tops 45%, Double the 2000 Bubble
Proportion of S&P 500 stocks with a negative beta ｜ The 3-month measure hits 45%, roughly double the ~18% seen at the 2000 dot-com peak
When 10-Year Yields Jump More Than 2 Std Dev, S&P 500 Monthly Returns Average Below -4%
Average monthly S&P 500 return by size of 10-year yield move ｜ In the greater-than-2-sigma bucket, the real-yield reading averages about -4.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield Sits More Than One Sigma Above Model Fair Value
US 10-year Treasury yield vs Alpine Macro fair-value model, 2005-2026 ｜ Now near 5%, above the +1 sigma band
Oracle's Project Jupiter Data-Center Financing: $18bn Loan Quoted at 89-91 Cents
Project Jupiter entity and fund-flow structure ｜ $18bn project finance loan quoted at 89-91 cents on the dollar in September 2026, below par
Global Bond Yields Climb, With France, Italy and the UK Rising Above the Global Average
Cumulative rise in 10-year government bond yields versus the global average across 12 countries ｜ High-debt France, Italy and the UK outpace the global average
AI Costs Are Falling About 12.7x a Year, the Fastest of Any Transformative Technology
Relative cost decline of transformative technologies, log scale ｜ AI falling ~12.7x/year, steeper than compute, batteries or DNA sequencing
Norway's Norges Bank Raises Its Policy Rate to 4.5%, Back at the Cycle High
Norges Bank policy rate since 2005 ｜ Latest hike to 4.5% from 4.25%, back near the 2024 cycle peak
S&P 500 Revenue per Share Is Growing 7.5% a Year in the 2020s, the Fastest in 50 Years
S&P 500 revenue per share, TTM, log scale, 1977-2026E ｜ 2020s growing 7.5%/yr, above the 5.0% 50-year average and the 1990s' 3.7%
Meta's Muse Daily Active Users Climb to About 710K in Ten Days, Still Below One Million
Muse by Meta daily active users, iOS and Android worldwide ｜ Up from about 70K to 710K between Sept 10 and Sept 20, still under one million
No FOMC Participants See Downside Risks to GDP Growth, a First in 15 Years
Number of FOMC participants weighting GDP-growth risks to the downside ｜ Latest drops to zero, the first since at least 2011, after peaking near 18 in 2024
India Leads Next Decade's Growth at Over 7% as China and Most Advanced Economies Slow
GDP growth by country, 2016-2025 vs projected 2026-2035, split by the 45° line ｜ India highest at over 7%; China and Vietnam fall into slowing growth
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 197,000, Four-Week Average at 202,250
US weekly initial jobless claims and four-week average ｜ 197,000 in the week of Sept 19, four-week average down to 202,250
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Rises to 7.03%, Highest Since January 2025
US 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates, 2022-2026 ｜ 30-year at 7.03%, highest since January 2025; 15-year at 6.42%
GPU-to-CPU Ratio Seen Falling From 3.0 in 2025 to 1.9 by 2028, per J.P. Morgan
Data-center GPU-to-CPU ratio assumption, 2024-2028E ｜ Down from 4.0 in 2024 to 3.0 in 2025, and an estimated 1.9 by 2028
S&P 500 Falls 4.2% on Average in Months When Real Yields Jump Over 2 Std Devs
Average monthly S&P 500 return by size of the 10-year real-yield move ｜ -1.4% for a 1-2 sigma rise, -4.2% for over 2 sigma
China's Iranian Crude Imports Collapse to ~80,000 b/d, Near a Decade Low
China's imports of Iranian crude, barrels per day, 2016-2026 ｜ September's first 20 days fall to ~80,000 b/d, down over 90% from 1.0-1.5 million pre-war
Atlanta Fed Year-Ahead Business Inflation Expectations Rise to 2.4% in September
Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, year-ahead unit costs, 2011-2026 ｜ Rises to 2.4% in September from 2.2%, below the ~3.8% 2022 peak
Over 70% of S&P 500 Stocks Sit 10%+ Below Their 52-Week High While the Index Stays Near Records
S&P 500 with breadth event signals, 2014-2026 ｜ Now over 70% of members are down 10%+ from 52-week highs even as the index holds near record highs
OECD Top Income-Tax Rates: Denmark Leads at 60.5%, With Japan and France Above 55%
OECD countries with top income-tax rates above 50% ｜ Denmark tops the list at 60.5%, followed by Japan (about 55.95%) and France (55.4%)
Silver Miner First Majestic's Cash Balance Climbs to a Record $1.09 Billion
First Majestic Silver cash and equivalents, trailing 12 months (2007-2026) ｜ Now at $1.09B, an all-time high, reflecting surging miner cash during the precious-metals rally
AAII Bullish Sentiment Rebounds to 32.7%, Still Below the 37.5% Long-Run Average
AAII individual-investor bullish share, weekly, 2023-2026 ｜ Latest rebounds to 32.7% from 28.8%, still under the 37.5% long-term average
US Composite PMI Rises to About 58 in September, the Strongest Since 2015 Outside the Covid Rebound
US composite PMI with GDP, and services vs manufacturing PMI (S&P Global) ｜ The September composite PMI rose to around 58, the fastest expansion since 2015 apart from the post-Covid reopening
Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Spikes to 3%, Highest Since 1996
Japan 10-year government bond yield, % ｜ Yield spiked to 3% amid a global bond selloff, the highest since 1996
S&P 500 Financials' Forward Earnings Up 12.5% YTD, Price Up Just 1.8%
S&P 500 financials: forward earnings, price and P/E, YTD % ｜ Forward earnings +12.5% but price only +1.8% as the forward P/E fell 9.5%
SNB Sees Swiss Inflation at 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027-2028
Swiss CPI YoY and SNB conditional forecast, % ｜ SNB projects inflation of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027-2028, far below 2023's 3%+
US Household Equities Reach a Record 38.9% of Net Worth
US household corporate equity assets as a share of net worth (1956-2026) ｜ Now 38.9%, the highest since data began in 1952 and above the 2000 dot-com peak
US Data-Center Construction Up $50B Since Late 2023 as Other Private Building Slumps
US private construction spending vs Dec 2023 ｜ Data centers up about $50B while all other private construction fell more than $120B
US New Home Sales Hit a 2026 High While the Median Sale Price Slips
US new home sales and median sale price change, 2024-2026 ｜ Sales (annualized) rise to ~660K, a 2026 high, while median price change turns to ~-6%
US Investor Crypto Ownership Falls to 11% in 2026 From 17% in 2025
US cryptocurrency ownership, investors and adults, 2018-2026 ｜ Investor share falls to 11% in 2026 from 17% in 2025, still above 2% in 2018
Meta's New App Muse Tops All Core Meta Apps in US Daily Downloads
US daily downloads of Meta apps, thousands ｜ Muse reached about 310k daily downloads, surpassing Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook
US OpenTable Diners Rebound After Labor Day, Up 37% YoY on Sep 1
US OpenTable seated diners, YoY % change (daily) ｜ Most days ran +13-17% YoY, with Sep 1 up 37% after a brief Labor Day dip
Dangerous Goods as a Share of EU Road Freight: Finland Highest at 9.8%, Lithuania Lowest at 0.7% in 2025
Dangerous goods as a share of road freight tonne-km by country (2024 and 2025) ｜ In 2025 Finland led at 9.8% and Lithuania was lowest at 0.7%, with the EU around 4%
US Households Aged 65+ Earned $3.87 Trillion in 2025, the Most of Any Age Cohort
US household income by age and net worth by generation (Yardeni, two panels) ｜ The 65+ group earned $3.87tn in 2025, the most of any cohort, while Baby Boomer net worth reached $97.4tn
Americans Increasingly See Data Centers as Harmful, With 54% Citing the Environment
Share of US adults who say data centers are mostly bad for each area ｜ 54% now cite the environment, up from 39% in January, with home energy costs at 50%
S&P 500 Forward P/E Compresses From Over 23x to About 18x as the Fed Turns Hawkish
Bloomberg Fed sentiment index vs S&P 500 forward P/E ｜ Forward P/E compressed from above 23x to about 18x as the Fed turned hawkish
Citigroup US Earnings Revision Index Turns Negative, Ending Longest Upgrade Streak in Five Years
Citigroup US Earnings Revision Index ｜ The latest reading turned negative, ending an upgrade run that had been the longest in five years
US Federal Debt-to-GDP Rises to 122%, Nearly Double Its Clinton-Era Level
Change in US federal debt as % of GDP by president ｜ Now 122%, up from 56% when Clinton left office, roughly a doubling
G7 Long-Term Bond Index Down 45% in Six Years, About 9% a Year
Bloomberg Long-Term G7 government bond index, USD ｜ Down 45% from 133.79 in April 2020 to 73.22 in August 2026, about -9% annually
Estimated Long-Term UK GDP Impact by EU Scenario: +3.6% for Full Membership, -1.1% for Divergence
Estimated long-term effect on UK GDP by EU-relationship scenario (%) ｜ Full membership +3.6% and single market +2.1%, versus -1.1% under divergence
Oracle CDS Hits Record-Wide 223bps, Far Above Meta and Nvidia
Large-cap tech CDS spreads, basis points ｜ Oracle CDS at a record 223bps, versus Meta at 94 and Nvidia at 86
Euro IG Real Estate Credit Spreads Widen 14bp on the Month, Outpacing the 8bp Broader Move
EUR IG real estate vs broad IG senior spreads (bp) ｜ Real estate senior spreads widened 14bp over the month, more than the 8bp move in the broader IG benchmark
US 30-Year TIPS Real Yield Rises to 3.19%, the Highest Since 2002
US 30-year TIPS real yield, 2001-2026 ｜ Real yield climbs to 3.19%, the highest since 2002
S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index Pulls Back From Its August High as the Average Stock Lags
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, daily (2026) ｜ Down from an August high near 9,050 to 8,568, showing the average stock is trailing the cap-weighted index
US Composite PMI Rises to 58.4 in September, a Five-Year Growth High
S&P Global US Composite PMI output and GDP, 2013-2026 ｜ September PMI rises to 58.4, a five-year high in growth, led by services
US 25-34 Year-Olds Spend ~20% of Leisure Time on Games or Computers, Triple 2003
Share of leisure time spent gaming or on a computer by age, 2003/2019/2025 ｜ The 25-34 group reaches ~20% in 2025, over triple the ~6% in 2003
US 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2004 as Global Bond Yields Near 4%
US 30-year yield and Bloomberg global aggregate treasuries yield ｜ 30-year at ~5.4%, highest since 2004; the global index nears 4%, first since 2007
US On-Highway Diesel Price Climbs to ~$6.4/Gallon, Near a Record
US on-highway diesel retail cost, $/gallon, 1994-2026 ｜ Recently spikes to ~$6.4/gallon, a multi-year high, far above the ~$2 low in 2020
Oracle's 2056 Bond Yield Tops 8% for the First Time
Yield to maturity on Oracle's 6.7% 2056 bond, % ｜ The yield broke above 8% to 8.05%, a record for the note
US Diesel Crack Nears $108/bbl as the 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Toward 5%
USGC ULSD-WTI diesel crack vs US 10Y yield (Aug 20 to Sep 22) ｜ The crack rose from about $85 to above $105/bbl while the 10Y yield climbed to about 5.0%
20-Year Treasury ETF TLT Falls to 79.50, an All-Time Low, Down 54% From Its 2020 Peak
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), daily, 2002-2026 ｜ Last at 79.50, a record low, about 54% below its 2020 peak of 171.57
Institutions Buy $4.1B of US Equities in the Week Ending Sept 18 as Retail Sells
US equity flows by investor type, week ending Sept 18 (USD bn) ｜ Institutions +$4.1B and hedge funds +$1.2B, retail -$2.2B, net +$3.0B
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Tops 7.1% as ARM Share Climbs to 9.8%
MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate and ARM share, 2021-2026 ｜ Fixed rate now 7.12% while the ARM share rebounds to 9.8%, near multi-year highs
Evercore: Data-Center Compute TAM to Grow at 40% CAGR to ~$1 Trillion by 2030
Data-center compute (CPU+GPU) TAM ｜ Forecast 40% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with the market reaching roughly $1 trillion
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Soars to 7.45%, the Highest Since April 2024
US 30-year mortgage rate, 2024-2026 ｜ Rate climbs to 7.45%, the highest level since April 2024
JPMorgan: Retail Investors Net-Sold Tech ETFs This Week, Record Outflows in SOXX and MTUM
JPMorgan retail ETF flows (sector, SOXX, MTUM) ｜ Retail net-sold tech-sector ETFs, with record single-day outflows in SOXX and momentum ETF MTUM
Japan's 2-Year Government Bond Yield Rises to 1.905%, the Highest in Over 31 Years
Japan 2-year government bond yield, full history ｜ Now 1.905%, up 0.063 point on the day, the highest in more than 31 years
Atlanta Fed Year-Ahead Business Inflation Expectations Rise to 2.4%
Atlanta Fed year-ahead inflation expectations, 2018-2026 ｜ Mean expectation edges up to 2.4% as the probability distribution shifts higher
S&P 500 Forward P/E Compresses From Over 23x to About 18x as the Fed Turns Hawkish
Bloomberg Fed sentiment index vs S&P 500 forward P/E ｜ Forward P/E compressed from above 23x to about 18x as the Fed turned hawkish
Hyperscaler CDS Spreads Blow Out to All-Time Wides, Oracle Above 220 bps
Major hyperscaler 5-year CDS spreads, 2026 ｜ Oracle at 224 bps and CoreWeave at 852 bps, with several hitting record wides
UBS Estimates Each MW of Data Center Uses ~120 Tons of Cement and 1,100 Tons of Aggregates
UBS estimates of data center materials intensity, per MW and per k sqft ｜ Roughly 120 tons of cement and 1,100 tons of aggregates per MW, framing AI buildout as a heavy-materials supercycle
ABF Substrate Supply-Demand Gap Seen at 46% in 2028, Up From 1% in 2026
ABF substrate demand YoY, supply YoY and the gap, % ｜ The supply-demand gap widens from 1% in 2026 to 46% in 2028 on AI demand
US Top 1% Income Share Rises to ~20%, Over Half the Gain From Pass-Throughs
US top 1% income share, actual vs counterfactual, 1958-2020 ｜ Actual near 20% vs ~14% counterfactual; over half the rise since 1985 came via pass-through businesses
Older Millennials Top Hobby Spending, More Than Double Gen Z
Average hobby spending per customer by generation, index Gen Z=100 ｜ Older Millennials ~211 and Boomers ~210, with Gen Z lowest at 100
Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Yield Rises Above 3%, the Highest Since 1996
Japan government 10-year simple yield (2025-2026) ｜ Up from about 1.6% a year ago to above 3.0%, the highest level since 1996
Supertanker Daily Earnings Surge Above $700K/day to a Record High
VLCC daily earnings on major routes (2009-2026) ｜ Rates have spiked above $700K/day, a record high, far above the sub-$100K levels typical for most of the period
Growth Outlook by Country: India Leads Above 7% for the Next Decade
GDP growth by country, 2016-25 vs 2026-35 (scatter) ｜ India's 2026-35 growth estimated above 7%, with Indonesia and Vietnam in the accelerating zone
No FOMC Member Sees Downside Risks to US Growth as the Count Falls to Zero in 2026
FOMC participants weighting risks to GDP growth as downside, 2011-2026 ｜ Falls to 0 in 2026, matching prior extremes seen in 2018 and 2021
Hyperscaler CDS Spreads Hit Record Wides, Oracle Tops Its 2008 Peak
Major hyperscaler 5-year CDS spreads, 2026 ｜ Oracle above 220 bps, surpassing its 2008 crisis peak, while CoreWeave reaches 852 bps
Euro-Area Sovereign Yields Climb Toward 5% While Spreads to Bunds Compress to Multi-Year Lows
Euro-area 10-year sovereign yields and spreads over Bunds (2018-2026) ｜ Yields have risen toward 4-5% across countries, yet spreads to Bunds have compressed to roughly 50-100bps, a multi-year low
Share of S&P 500 Stocks With Negative Beta Jumps to 45%, Near the 2000 Tech-Bubble Peak
Share of S&P 500 members with negative beta, 3-month and 1-year (1990-2026) ｜ The 3-month measure hit 45%, the highest since the 2000-01 tech bubble, signaling deep market divergence
Oracle's Project Jupiter Data Center Leans on an $18bn Loan and Up to $165bn in Bonds for Off-Balance-Sheet Financing
Project Jupiter financing structure ｜ An $18bn project loan and up to $165bn in revenue bonds underpin a roughly $300bn OpenAI compute contract
China's Gasoline and Diesel Exports Rebound in August 2026, Still Below 2020 Peaks
China's gasoline and diesel exports, million barrels/month (sa) ｜ Both rebounded off lows in August 2026 but remain far below their 2020 highs
China's Port Container Throughput Hits Record, Up 9% YoY Before the Trump-Xi Meeting
China weekly port container throughput, million TEUs by year ｜ Up 9% YoY in the week to Sep 20, with 2026 near 7M TEUs, a seasonal record
Share of Americans Who See Widespread Government Corruption Rises to a Record 89%
Share of Americans saying corruption is widespread in the US government (2006-2026) ｜ Now 89%, a record high, up sharply from 59% in 2006
US New Home Average Sale Price Drops to $478,700, a Two-Year Low
US new home median and average sale price, 2001-2026 ｜ Average price falls to $478,700 with a record monthly drop; median at $393,700
Small-Cap-to-Nasdaq-100 Ratio (IWM/QQQ) Falls to 0.38, a Multi-Year Low
IWM/QQQ weekly ratio (2022-2026) ｜ The ratio has dropped to 0.38, a multi-year low, down sharply from about 0.66 in 2022 as small caps keep lagging
Project Beignet's 6.581% 2049 Senior Secured Bond Falls to 93.785, an All-Time Low
RPLDCI 6.581% senior secured bond due 2049 (2025-2026) ｜ The price has dropped from about 110 to 93.785, an all-time low, as data-center-linked financing comes under pressure
Momentum ETF MTUM's Ratio to SPY Rises to 0.41, Breaking Above Its 100-Day Average
MTUM/SPY relative-strength ratio with 100-day average (2025-2026) ｜ The ratio has recovered to 0.41 and crossed back above its 100-day average, with momentum leading again
Meta's AI App Muse Sees Daily Active Users Jump From ~70K to ~710K in 10 Days
Muse by Meta daily active users, iOS and Android worldwide (Sep 10 to Sep 20) ｜ DAUs climbed from about 70K to roughly 710K, about a tenfold rise in ten days
AI Infrastructure Stocks Seen Contributing 15pp to 2026 S&P 500 EPS Growth, Nearly Half
Contribution to consensus S&P 500 EPS growth, AI infrastructure and hyperscalers (2025-2028) ｜ AI infrastructure adds 15pp of the 28% 2026 growth, fading to 8pp by 2028
CFA Level I Pass Rate Rises to 43% for the August Exam, Above the 10-Year Average
CFA Level I exam pass rate, 2018-2026 ｜ August pass rate rises to 43%, above May's 39% and the 40% decade average
Nearly 20% of US Listings Cut Prices in August as Mortgage Rates Near 7%
Share of US listings with price cuts vs the 30-year mortgage rate ｜ 19.5% of listings cut prices in August as mortgage rates rose to about 7%
Utilities ETF XLU Has Fallen 17% Since Late February, Trading at $39.60
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), past year ｜ Down 17.03% from its Feb 27 high to $39.60, and 7.52% lower over the year
US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits ~5.4%, the Highest Since 2004
US 30-year Treasury yield, 2005-2026 ｜ Yield rises to ~5.4%, the highest level since 2004
US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Average Near 200k, Continuing Claims at 1.72M
US initial (4-wk avg) and continuing jobless claims, weekly ｜ Continuing claims at 1.72M, a recent low, with the initial 4-wk average near 200k
AAII Bearish Sentiment at 48.1%, Well Above the 32.7% Bullish Share
AAII investor sentiment, bullish/neutral/bearish, last four weeks ｜ Week of 9/23 shows 48.1% bearish vs 32.7% bullish and 19.2% neutral
Meta on Track for Its Best Month Since July 2013, Up Over 30% in September
Meta Platforms monthly stock return, % ｜ Up more than 30% in September, the biggest monthly gain since July 2013
Victorian Bootmaking Jobs Held Near Constant as Old-Task Roles Fell From ~215k to ~63k
UK bootmaking employment by census year, old vs new tasks ｜ The total held around 200-240k while old-task jobs fell from about 215k to 63k, with new tasks filling the gap
US August CPI Rises 3.4% YoY, With Shelter and Core Services the Biggest Contributors
Year-over-year contributions to US CPI by component (Aug 2019 to Aug 2026) ｜ August CPI rose 3.4%, led by shelter and core services, with energy turning into a positive contributor
Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Yield Rises Above 3%, Highest Since 1996
Japan 10-year government bond yield, 2025-2026 ｜ Yield tops 3.0%, the highest since 1996 after nearly doubling in a year
US Five-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 5% for the First Time Since 2007
Yield on five-year US Treasuries, 2008-2026 ｜ Yield tops 5% (~5.03%), the first time above that level since 2007
State Street Institutional Equity Allocation Climbs to ~58%, Near a 25-Year High
State Street Risk Holdings Indicator, allocation to equity, 2006-2026 ｜ Allocation rises to ~58%, near the highest in 25 years
CME FedWatch-Implied Rate Path Jumps, Nearly Four More Hikes Priced Through 2027
Probability-weighted policy rate path implied by CME FedWatch, through 2027 ｜ The 9/23 curve shifts above 9/22, pricing ~95 bps (near four hikes) by end-2027