AfD Overtakes CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia Poll at 24% vs 22%
North Rhine-Westphalia federal-election poll (Forsa), Sept 2026 ｜ AfD rises to 24% (+2), passing CDU at 22% (-4); Greens 18%, SPD 14%
2026-09 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 35.
10-Year Government Bond Yields vs the Global Average Across 12 Countries; US, Japan, Italy and France Lead
Cumulative rise in 10-year government bond yields above the global average, in bps, indexed to 100 on Jan 1, 2026 ｜ US, Japan, Italy and France exceed 180 as global bond markets weaken together
US Top Statutory Tax Rate Swung Wildly Over a Century While the Effective Rate Held Near 17%
US top statutory vs effective income tax rate, 1913-2025 (%) ｜ Statutory rate once topped 90%; effective rate has averaged ~17% since 1945
Fed Funds Futures Climb Across the Curve; Dec-27 Contract Hits 4.65% on Sept 23
Fed funds futures-implied rates, Jan-Sep 2026 ｜ Dec-27 contract rose to 4.65% on 9/23, above the 3.875% current target
Meta Jumps Over 20% After Unveiling Shopping-Travel AI 'Muse'; TripAdvisor Falls ~13%
Share-price change for Meta, Schwab and TripAdvisor, Sep 8-23 ｜ Meta up over 20% while TripAdvisor drops ~13%, indexed to the Sep 4 close
Spot Brent's Premium to Front-Month Futures Widens to ~$20 as Spot Nears $130
Spot vs front-month Brent crude and their spread ($/bbl), 2026 ｜ Spot Brent recently spiked to ~$130, widening its premium over front-month futures to ~$20-25
Polymarket Odds of a 25bp Fed Hike in October Rise to 64%
Polymarket-implied probabilities for the October Fed decision ｜ A 25bp increase at 64% versus no change at 36%, a sharp recent swing toward a hike
Gold ETF Holdings Approach 2026 Highs Above 100 Million Ounces Even as Real Yields Jump
Total known gold ETF holdings in ounces vs the 10-year US real yield ｜ Holdings rise to about 100.5 million ounces while the real yield jumps above 2.6%, leaving demand undeterred
G10 10-Year Yields Jump on Sept 23; France Leads at +15.4bps, Above the US
One-day change in G10 10-year government bond yields (bps), 2026-09-23 ｜ France +15.4bps leads, ahead of the US +15.3bps; only Japan, NZ and Australia fell, Australia -5bps
Brazil's Jan-Aug Trade Surplus Reaches ~$55bn in 2026, Near a Record
Brazil's Jan-Aug trade surplus, $bn ｜ ~$55bn in 2026, second only to the ~$62bn record set in 2023
S&P 500 Goes 38 Sessions Without a 1% Drop While Within 5% of Its Record
S&P 500 calm streaks and subsequent returns since 2000 (n=18) ｜ Current run is 38 days without a 1% decline; in past cases the index was higher 3 months later 14 of 17 times, with a median max drawdown of 5.1%
Gold ETF Holdings Approach 2026 Highs Even as Real Yields Jump
Total known gold ETF holdings (ounces) vs the US 10-year real yield ｜ Holdings near a 101M-ounce high as the 10-year real yield climbs to ~2.65%, with buyers undeterred
AI Compute Cost Falls Over 1,000,000x in About 5 Years, the Fastest of Any Transformative Tech
Relative cost decline of five transformative technologies ｜ AI drops about 1,000,000x in roughly 5 years, far steeper than compute's 60-year or electricity's 80-year path
Nvidia's Forward Earnings Multiple Sinks to Its Lowest in Over a Decade
Nvidia price to estimated profits, 2016-2026 ｜ Recently down to about 15x, the lowest in more than a decade
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs to 7.26%, Highest Since May 2024
US 30-year mortgage rate, Mortgage News Daily ｜ Up to 7.26%, the highest since May 2024
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Capex Gauge Sinks Further in September, No Expansion in Over Two Years
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey current capex, SA ｜ Around -7 in September, still contracting after more than two years
TPU v7 Hits 709 tokens/sec on Kimi K3, About 57% Above GB200's 452
Kimi K3 inference throughput, tokens/sec, TPU v7 vs GB200 ｜ 16× TPU v7 at 709 tok/s, ~57% above 16× GB200's 452
S&P 500 Sector Returns: Energy +45.6% YTD Leads; Comm Services +3.5% MTD
S&P 500 sector returns, month-to-date and year-to-date ｜ Energy +45.6% and Info Tech +25.0% lead YTD; Materials -5.1% is the worst MTD
Small-Cap Valuations Slide as Margins Lag Large Caps; Margin Z-Score Falls to ~-2.5
Small vs large-cap equity risk premium and margins (z-scores), 2001-2026 ｜ The S&P 600 minus 500 margin z-score fell to ~-2.5 as small-cap valuations declined with lagging profits
NYSE Percent of Stocks Above the 50-Day Average Falls to 27.67%, Nearing March Lows
NYSE % of stocks above the 50-DMA ｜ Down to 27.67% (-13.9% on the day), approaching the March low near 21.65%
Miami's Luxury Home-Sale Share Up 4.5pts vs 2019 While Philadelphia Slips 1.6pts
Change in luxury share of home sales by metro vs 2019, Sep 2025-Aug 2026 ｜ Miami +4.5pts leads, Dallas and SF up 3+pts, Philadelphia -1.6pts
J.P. Morgan: Global Oil Inventories Run Far Above the Sharp Draw Forecast in April
Global oil inventories (mb), seasonal by month ｜ April forecast saw a draw to ~6,700, but actuals hold near ~7,900
WTI Oil Sits ~$25 Above Its Pre-War Price 200 Days After the US-Israel Strike on Iran
WTI oil change vs pre-invasion price ｜ ~$25 above after 200 days, versus ~$7 below at the same point post-Ukraine
US Corporate Net Interest Falls to 0.4% of GDP While the Government's Rises to 3.6%
US net interest payments as a share of GDP, corporate vs government, 2015-2026 ｜ Corporate falls to about 0.4% while government climbs to about 3.6%, diverging sharply after the Fed's hikes
S&P 500 Sector Performance: Materials +1.9% Leads, Financials -2.0% Lags
S&P 500 sector daily performance, 2026-09-22 ｜ Materials +1.9% and Consumer Staples +1.2% lead; Financials -2.0% is the weakest, with the index flat
Number of S&P 500 Days Moving 2%+ Runs Low in 2026, Well Below the 70+ Seen in 2008
Trading days the S&P 500 moved 2% or more, by year, 1960-2026 ｜ 2008 saw 70+ such days, the most on record; 2026 has very few, marking a low-volatility year
US Treasury 10Y-2Y Spread Narrows to ~0.2pp; 10Y-3M Holds Near 0.9pp
US Treasury yield spreads (pp): 10Y minus 2Y and 10Y minus 3M ｜ 10Y-2Y recently narrowed to ~0.2, 10Y-3M around 0.9
BofA: SPX Dealer Gamma Rebounds to $7.7bn, Back in the 79th Percentile
BofA SPX dealer gamma, two panels ｜ Gamma back to $7.7bn (79th pct); flips to a volatility amplifier only below ~7,350
FOMC September Projections Keep US Real GDP Growth Near 2.1-2.4% Through 2029
FOMC median real GDP growth projections (Q4/Q4) by vintage ｜ The September vintage sees ~2.3% in 2026 and ~2.4% in 2027, revised up from June
Tokyo Exchange Breadth: 788 Prime-Market Decliners, 51% of the Board
Advancers, decliners and unchanged across TSE Prime, Standard and Growth, Sept 24 9:15 ｜ Prime shows 788 decliners (51%) versus 697 advancers (45%), while Standard and Growth have majority advancers
France Grows Riskiest for Eurozone Bondholders as Its Spread Over Germany Widens Most
Change in 10Y country spreads over Germany since Sept 2025 (bp) ｜ France's spread has widened the most, about +15bp, leading peers
US 10-Year Real Yield Rises Above the Economy's Potential Growth Rate, 3.3% vs 2.5%
US monetary policy: rates, SOFR curve and real yields ｜ 10-year real yield at 3.3%, now above the potential real growth rate of 2.5%
10-Year Real Yield Rises to 2.6%, Above Real Potential GDP Growth
US 10-year real yield, R* and real potential GDP growth, 1961-2033 ｜ Real yield now 2.60%, above ~1.80% potential growth, echoing 2000 and 2007
Nvidia and Broadcom to Make Up 75% of the HBM Market
HBM client mix at Hynix and Samsung ｜ Nvidia and Broadcom together account for about 75% of HBM demand
Florida Leads Net Interstate Income Inflows at 53% of GDP; New York and Illinois Each Lose 21%
US net interstate personal-income flows as a share of state GDP, 2012-2023 ｜ Florida +53% on top; New York and Illinois each -21% at the bottom
S&P 500 Internals Weaken, Share of Stocks Above the 50-DMA Falls to 29.2%
S&P 500 internals over the past year, three panels ｜ 29.2% of stocks above their 50-day average and 47.8% above the 200-day
US 10-Year Nominal Yield Rises to 5.11%, Driven by Real Yields While Breakevens Stay Near 2.3%
US 10-year nominal yield = real yield (TIPS) + inflation expectations (breakeven), 2020-2026 ｜ Nominal at 5.11%, with breakevens confined to a ~40bp range near 2.34%
NVIDIA VR200 Uses 560,000 MLCCs per Unit, Over 12x the H100
MLCC units by application ｜ VR200 tops at 560,000, about 12x the H100's 45,000
By 2036, 76% of Developing-Economy Workers Will Be in Non-Tradable Jobs
Projected occupational composition of developing economies' labor force, 2036 ｜ 76.1% in sheltered, non-tradable jobs and 86.8% not requiring a college degree
US Distillate Fuel Oil Exports Reach About 1.5 mb/d in June 2026
US exports of distillate fuel oil (diesel & heating oil), mb/d ｜ June 2026 near 1.5 mb/d, roughly 5% of global daily demand
US Household Assets Rise Above 10x Liabilities in Q2 2026
US household assets/liabilities and liquid assets/liabilities, 1995-2026 ｜ Assets now above 10x liabilities, a record, with the liquid ratio near 1.0
Euro Hyperscaler Credit Spreads Ease Back to About 100bp
Hyperscaler vs non-financial senior spreads, bp ｜ After spiking near 106bp in August, hyperscaler spreads narrowed to about 100bp
Global Oil Inventories Fall to About 7.8 Billion Barrels in 2026 After Record Draws
Global observed oil inventories by year, 2021-2026 ｜ 2026 down to about 7.78 billion barrels by August, the lowest for this period in recent years
China's Spot Copper Premium Surges to Highest Since November 2021
China copper cathode spot premium/discount, yuan/ton ｜ Now about 1,300 yuan/ton, the highest since November 2021
US Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record 57.9%
Estimated percent more home sellers than buyers in the US market, 2013-2026 ｜ 57.9% in August 2026, a record high
Big Four Hyperscaler Total Backlog (RPO) Surges to $2.3 Trillion, Up 188% YoY
Total backlog growth for AWS, GCP, Azure and OCI ($B) ｜ Latest near $2,326B, up 188% YoY and roughly 8x the 2021 level
47% of US Firms Expect to Add Headcount in a Year, Only 10.5% Plan Cuts
Firms' expectations for employee count 12 months out ｜ 47% increase, 42.5% no change, 10.5% decrease, N=470
Real Wages Rose 107.9% in Poland From 2004 to 2024, but Just 0.48% in Italy
Change in real wages in selected European countries, 2004-2024 ｜ Poland +107.9% and Czechia +106.6% lead; Italy +0.48% at the bottom
Metal Ores and Quarrying Products Lead EU Road Freight at 22.9% of Tonnes in 2025
EU road freight by type of goods, 2025, % share ｜ Metal ores, mining and quarrying products top the list at 22.9% of tonnes
Fully-Electric Car Share in Europe Rises to 29% in August, Sales Up About 50% YoY
European BEV market share and YoY sales gain, Jan-Aug 2026 ｜ Share at 29% in August with sales up about 50% year-on-year
European Diesel Premium to Brent Nears $90 a Barrel
European diesel premium to Brent crude, $/bbl, Oct 2025-Sep 2026 ｜ Up from about $20 early in the year to near $90, signaling extreme tightness
Aya's Zgounder Ranks Second Among the Top 50 Global Silver Intercepts, Holding 15 Spots
Top 50 global primary silver intercepts, 2020-2024, ranked by Ag grade-thickness ｜ Zgounder ranks second at 85,450 and holds 15 of the top 50
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Climbs to 7.37%
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate, daily, Sep 2025-Sep 2026 ｜ Now 7.37%, up sharply from about 6% in March
B200 Rental Rates Up 30% YTD as the 2028 Cloud Revenue Index Rises 35.6%
Cloud revenue and B200 rental rates indexed to start of 2026 ｜ B200 on-demand rentals +30.2% while 2028 cloud revenue tracks +35.6%
Sea Transport Carries 73.3% of EU Import Weight and 72.6% of Exports in 2025
EU trade in goods by mode of transport, 2025 ｜ Sea accounts for 73.3% of import weight but only 50.2% of import value
ICE BofA MOVE Index Jumps 21% in a Day to Its Highest Since March
ICE BofA MOVE bond-volatility index versus the S&P 500 ｜ MOVE up 21% Wednesday to 95.5, the highest since March, diverging from equities
US Diesel Exports Top 1.5M Barrels a Day in 2026, Led by Latin America and Europe
US diesel exports by destination, thousand barrels a day, 2022-2026 ｜ Total above 1,500kbd in 2026, ~1,000 to Latin America with Europe next
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.18%, Highest Since the Run-Up to the GFC
US 10-year Treasury yield, 2007-2026 ｜ Now 5.183%, up 0.069 on the day, back to pre-2008-crisis levels
Rotterdam and Antwerp Lead the EU's Busiest Short-Sea Shipping Ports in 2024
Goods handled at the EU's main short-sea shipping ports, 2024, million tonnes ｜ Rotterdam 161 and Antwerp-Bruges 122 lead; the top 20 ports are 54% of the total
10-Year Treasury Yield's One-Day Net Change Spikes to About 0.15, Among the Largest in Years
10-year yield and S&P plus the yield's one-day net change, 2021-2026 ｜ Latest daily move near 0.15 as macro reasserts itself over equities
S&P 500 Breadth Narrowest Since the Dot-Com Peak, Over Half of Members Below Their 200-Day Average
Share of S&P 500 members below their 200-day average vs distance from the record, 2000-2026 ｜ About 52% below the 200-DMA with the index ~1% from a record, echoing 2000
10-Year Yield Jumps 50bps in a Month While the VIX Closes at Just 15.26
S&P 500 (log) marking low-VIX, rising-yield episodes ｜ Red dots flag months when the 10-year rose 40+ bps with the VIX below 18
China's Spot Copper Premium Surges to About 1,375 Yuan/Ton, Highest Since November 2021
China copper cathode premium/discount, yuan/ton ｜ Latest near 1,375 yuan, the highest since November 2021
US Five-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%, Back Near a Two-Decade High
Yield on five-year US Treasuries ｜ Now above 5%, back at levels last seen around 2007 as borrowing costs climb
Utilities and the Mag 7 Flip From Moving Together to Diverging in 2026
S&P 500 Utilities vs the Magnificent 7 basket, total returns, Dec 2024-Sep 2026 ｜ They rose together in 2025, then decoupled in 2026
AAII Bearish Sentiment Rises to 48.1%, Bullish Falls to 32.7%
AAII weekly investor sentiment, bullish/neutral/bearish, last four weeks ｜ Bearish 48.1% vs bullish 32.7% for the week ending Sept 23
Tech ETFs Draw About $22bn This Quarter, Dwarfing $4.6bn Into the Rest
US ETP flows, Q2 versus Q3 ｜ Technology at about $22bn this quarter versus $4.6bn for non-tech
All-NATO 2025 Nominal GDP Reaches $59.2T, 23x Russia's $2.59T
2025 nominal GDP comparison, USD ｜ All NATO $59.2T and European NATO $26.1T versus Russia's $2.59T
US Distillate Exports to the Netherlands Jump to 37M Barrels/Month in H1 2026
Top 10 destinations of US distillate fuel-oil exports, H1 2025 vs 2026, million barrels/month ｜ Netherlands surged from 14M to 37M; Mexico leads near 40M
US Corporate Cash Flows Outrun Capex, Pushing the Financing Surplus Near Record Highs
US corporate capex, cash flows and financing surplus, two panels ｜ Cash flows now exceed capex, lifting the financing surplus toward non-crisis record highs
Credit Investors' Top Worry Shifts to Energy and Geopolitics at 20% in September
History of IG credit investors' biggest perceived risk ｜ High energy prices/geopolitics is the top worry in September 2026 at 20%
NYSE New Highs Minus New Lows Falls to -340, Lowest Since October 2023 Outside April
NYSE 52-week new highs minus new lows versus the Dow ｜ -340 on Wednesday, the lowest since October 2023 apart from April this year
Mexico Takes 15% of US Distillate Exports; the Netherlands' Share Doubles to 14%
Top 15 destinations for US distillate fuel-oil exports, share of total, Mar-Jun 2025 vs 2026 ｜ Mexico still leads near 15%; the Netherlands doubled to about 14%
US Treasury 2s/5s/10s Butterfly Turns Positive, Exiting Its Post-2022 Negative Range
US Treasury 2s/5s/10s par-yield butterfly, basis points, 2017-2026 ｜ Back to about 0bp and turning positive after years below zero
Odds of an October FOMC Rate Hike Jump to 70.9% From 26.6% Two Weeks Earlier
Market-implied probability of an October 28 FOMC rate move ｜ 70.9% on Sept 24, up from 26.6% at the start of the month
Big Four Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Seen Topping $190B, Up Over 80% YoY
MSFT, ORCL, AMZN and GOOGL quarterly capex ($B) ｜ Q4 modeled near $196B, +81% YoY, after a projected +116% in Q3
Distributed Solar Repairs in Under a Month vs 6-18 Months for a Refinery After a Strike
Cost, annual energy throughput and post-strike repair time for centralized vs distributed energy assets (Ember) ｜ A refinery takes 6-18 months to repair; a $5k DER solar system, under a month
US Household Net Worth Reaches 806% of Disposable Income, Assets at 898%
US household balance sheet as a percent of disposable income ｜ 2026 Q2 net worth at 806%, assets 898% and liabilities just 93%
Global Gas-Turbine Manufacturing Capacity to Reach 102GW by 2030, Up Over 50% From 2025
Global gas-turbine manufacturing capacity by maker, 2025-2030, BNEF estimates ｜ Rising from 67GW to 102GW, with GE, Siemens and Mitsubishi about 66% of the total
Sweden's Riksbank Holds Policy Rate at 1.75%, Down From a 4% 2024 Peak
Sweden policy rate, 2022-2026 ｜ Held at 1.75%, down 225 basis points from the 4% peak in 2024
Meta's Muse Draws 2.8M Initial Downloads Across iOS and Android, Ahead of ChatGPT's 1.3M
Muse versus ChatGPT initial downloads and active users ｜ Muse at 2.8M total downloads versus ChatGPT's 1.3M, with 0.36M daily active users
US 10-Year Real Yield Near 2.8%, Now Above Inflation Breakevens
US 10-year real yield versus inflation breakeven, 2017-2026 ｜ Real yield near 2.8%, now exceeding the breakeven of about 2.2%
Aya Gold & Silver Leads Peers With 93% of Revenue From Silver, 2026E
2026E revenue by metal for silver miners ｜ Aya Gold & Silver at about 93% silver, the highest among peers
US Productivity and Typical Worker Pay Have Diverged Since 1979
Productivity vs hourly compensation growth, 1948-2025 ｜ Since 1979 productivity rose 1.4%/yr versus 0.6% for pay, widening the gap
EV Share of New-Car Sales in Turkey Hits 22% in 2025, Up From 1% in Three Years
Share of new cars sold in Turkey that are electric, 2015-2025 ｜ Just 1% in 2022, 22% by 2025, a more than 20-fold jump
US 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.43%, the Highest Since 2004
US 30-year Treasury yield (USGG30YR), 2001-2026 ｜ Now 5.4263%, up from the 2020 low to the highest since 2004
US M2 Money Supply Rises to $23.34tn, an All-Time High
US M2 money supply, $trillions, 1960-2026 ｜ Now $23.34tn at a record high, up from about $15tn in 2020
Share of Fixed-Income Assets Yielding Over 4% Rises to About 84%
Share of fixed-income assets yielding over 4% by category, 2000-2026 ｜ Now about 84%, far above the ~15-20% of the 2010s
Europe New-Car Sales Rose 5.3% Year-on-Year in August
Europe new-car registrations, year-on-year, EU+EFTA+UK ｜ Up 5.3% in August 2026
Goldman Sachs Maps the AI Server Power Supply Chain, From Batteries to Power Conversion
Map of key suppliers across the AI server power supply chain, by Goldman Sachs ｜ Five layers: battery BBU, enclosure/thermal, power conversion, rack management and capacitors
AI Infrastructure Spending Estimated at 3.63% of GDP, Exceeding Railroads and Highways
Average annual infrastructure spending as a share of GDP by era, 1836-2032 ｜ AI (2025-32) estimated at 3.63%, above railroads' 2.24% and highways' 1.13%
India's Power Emissions Stay Flat for Two Years as Clean Energy Caps Coal
Four charts on India's power emissions and clean energy ｜ Electricity demand up 7% while coal generation stays flat, capping coal for the first time in 50 years
AAII Bears Rise to 48.1% While Bulls Sit at 32.7%
AAII investor sentiment: bulls, bears and neutral ｜ Bears at 48.1%, bulls 32.7%, neutral 19.2% as of Sep 24, 2026
European IG Credit 3s5s Spread Ratio Climbs to About 1.4x, Near a Post-Pandemic High
European A and BBB IG credit 3-5y/1-3y spread ratios, 2016-2026 ｜ BBB now above ~1.4x, near its post-pandemic high
Meta's New AI App Muse Jumps to 53% of Platform Impressions in 10 Days
Share of impressions across Meta's products, 9/12-9/22 ｜ Muse climbs from about 11% to 53%, overtaking Facebook and Instagram
Nasdaq Hits a New High While Net 52-Week Highs-Lows Turns to -1.85%
Nasdaq Composite vs net % of 52-week highs minus lows ｜ Index at 27,122 while breadth sits at -1.85%, a widening divergence
30-Year AAA Muni Yield Soars Above 5%, Highest Since at Least 2011
30-year AAA municipal benchmark yield, 2011-2026 ｜ Now above 5%, the highest since at least 2011 as state and local debt sells off
US 30-Year TIPS Real Yield Rises to 3.20%, Near a Decade High
US 30-year TIPS real yield, 2017-2026 ｜ Now about 3.20%, the highest since 2017
US Core PCE and Unemployment Scatter Clusters Near the Fed's Bullseye After 2024
Core PCE inflation vs unemployment, 1972-2026 ｜ 2024-2026 dots cluster near 2-3% inflation and about 4% unemployment, close to both mandates
Captive Coal Adds Another 60% on Top of Indonesia's Grid Coal Generation
Indonesia captive coal power plant locations and generation by sector ｜ Captive coal adds about 60% on top of grid-connected coal, with 161 TWh in industry