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2026-09-25

S&P 500 Falls 4.2% on Average in Months When Real Yields Jump Over 2 Std Devs

S&P 500 Falls 4.2% on Average in Months When Real Yields Jump Over 2 Std Devs

Key points

Average monthly S&P 500 return by size of the 10-year real-yield move | -1.4% for a 1-2 sigma rise, -4.2% for over 2 sigma

Image source: @AzizSunderji