Same Survey: Republicans at 80.9, Democrats at 35.9

Same Survey: Republicans at 80.9, Democrats at 35.9

The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment reading came in at 51.0, up from 48.0 in October and the highest in three months. Split by party, the same survey shows Republicans at 80.9, independents at 52.1 and Democrats at 35.9.

That is a 45-point gap between the two parties. The index's record low, set in May this year, was 44.8. The distance created by political affiliation alone is larger than the distance from the all-time low to today's level.

On the left of the chart the two lines cross in early 2025, with whichever party holds the White House jumping to the top. A survey built to measure the economy now spends much of its range measuring who respondents voted for.

This month's rebound came from independents, up 9.7 points. Two details matter more than the headline: sentiment fell about 5% among the largest stockholders, and the survey closed before this week's drop in equities.

The inflation panel carries more signal. One-year expectations eased from 4.7% to 4.3%, while the five-to-ten-year measure sits at 3.4%, still above its 2024 range. Near-term price pain is fading; the long-run anchor has not reset.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (Image: @neilsethinew)