The Next Six Years of Renewables Will Add 57% More Than the Last Six

The Next Six Years of Renewables Will Add 57% More Than the Last Six

The International Energy Agency's latest forecast puts global renewable capacity additions at about 4,770 GW for 2026 to 2031, some 57% more than the six years from 2020 to 2025. Solar accounts for more than three-quarters of it.

That 57% compares six years with six years, and the starting line is a year that goes down: additions in 2026 itself are forecast at 733 GW, an 11% fall from 2025. China is the reason: solar installations there dropped nearly 55% in the first nine months as subsidy and pricing reforms ended the rush to connect. So the chart describes a dip before the climb, and the first year's hole has to be filled first.

The structure is shifting too. China's share of global growth falls from over 60% in 2025 to roughly 53% across the period. India takes up the slack as the second-largest growth market. Europe adds about 100 GW over the whole six years, near its 2025 pace, which amounts to standing still.

The driver has changed as well. The report credits energy security rather than climate targets. That moves the policy risk from environmental commitments to trade and grid connections, which tend to be harder to forecast and quicker to change.

Source: International Energy Agency, Renewables 2026 (Image: @IEA)