Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low While Hiring Stays Frozen

Jobless Claims Hit a 57-Year Low While Hiring Stays Frozen

Initial US jobless claims came in at 189,000 last week and the four-week average fell to 194,750. You have to go back to the summer of 1969 to find a lower reading. Claims have now stayed at or below 200,000 for eight straight weeks.

The number is even lower than it looks. The US labour force was around 80 million in 1969 and is above 170 million today. The same count of claims spread over twice as many workers is half the rate it used to be.

■ This series measures one thing: whether people are being let go

You can only file a claim after losing a job. So claims capture whether companies are cutting, not whether they are hiring. A firm that keeps its staff and opens no new roles looks exactly like a booming economy on this chart.

Other data fills the gap. US employment growth has slowed to roughly zero while layoffs really are scarce. This is a low-firing, low-hiring market, frozen on both sides.

For people who already have a job, that is good news. For people looking for one, this chart says almost nothing.

Source: US Department of Labor (Image: @charliebilello)