Gas Turbine Capacity Is Rising by Half, and the Queue Already Runs to 2030

Gas Turbine Capacity Is Rising by Half, and the Queue Already Runs to 2030

BloombergNEF estimates that global gas turbine manufacturing capacity will rise from 67 gigawatts a year in 2025 to 102 gigawatts by 2030, an increase of more than half in five years.

The study covers 44 assembly plants across 26 manufacturers. The three largest makers, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, hold 66% of global capacity today, and North America's share of the total is set to climb from under a quarter in 2025 to 33% by 2030.

Building more factories does not help anyone who needs power now. The new capacity only arrives in full by 2030, while delivery windows for combined-cycle gas units have already stretched from two or three years to between five and seven, putting orders placed today around 2030 anyway. The capacity that has not been built yet is effectively sold before it exists. A data centre signing a contract now is not getting an earlier delivery, only a later place in line.

The order books need unpacking too. Of GE Vernova's 116 gigawatt backlog, only 53 gigawatts are firm equipment orders; the remaining 63 gigawatts are reservations holding a production slot. Siemens Energy's 69 gigawatts are all firm. Mitsubishi's 35 gigawatts covers large-frame machines only, leaving out its aeroderivative and mid-size lines.

The length of the queue is itself a price signal. When delivery takes longer than building the data centre it will power, the constraint on electricity supply sits on a factory floor rather than in the cost of fuel, which is also why keeping older units running and generating on site keeps gaining value.

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg and Modern Power Systems (Image: @JEBistline)