Market Note
2026-09-23

California's Grid Burns 60% Less Gas, and Has Not Closed a Single Plant

California's Grid Burns 60% Less Gas, and Has Not Closed a Single Plant

California's Grid Burns 60% Less Gas, and Has Not Closed a Single Plant

Gas-fired generation on California's grid fell 62% between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026. Solar fills the daytime gap and batteries now carry the evening peak.

Gas capacity, however, has barely moved. Energy Information Administration figures show that between April 2024 and April 2026 solar capacity on the California grid rose 19% to 25 GW and battery capacity jumped 79% to 16 GW, while gas capacity held at 29 GW. Not one gas plant has retired. They have been demoted from workhorse to backup, idle most of the time and expected to step in the moment they are needed.

An outside condition has been helping too. Electricity imports doubled over the same two years, mostly hydropower from the Pacific Northwest as the drought lifted and wind from New Mexico that only began flowing in April, while demand grew 7%. In-state solar and batteries are not the whole story behind that 62%, and a bad water year would bring those 29 GW of gas plants straight back.

Source: US Energy Information Administration and the California Independent System Operator (Image: @RichardMeyerDC)