【加州天然氣發電兩年少六成,電廠一座都沒關】⚡
加州電網的天然氣發電量,從 2024 年上半年到 2026 年上半年減少 62%。白天的空缺被太陽能填滿,傍晚的尖峰交給電池接手。
天然氣的裝置容量卻幾乎沒有動。根據美國能源資訊署的統計,2024 年 4 月到 2026 年 4 月,加州電網的太陽能容量增加 19% 到 25GW,電池容量大增 79% 到 16GW,天然氣容量則維持在 29GW。燃氣機組一座都沒有退役,只是從主力降成備援,平常不發電,需要的時候得立刻頂上。
這兩年還有一個外部條件在幫忙。同一期間加州的電力進口翻了一倍,主要來自旱象結束、恢復供水的太平洋西北水力,以及 4 月才開始送電的新墨西哥州風電;用電需求在同期還成長了 7%。撐住這 62% 的不只是州內的太陽能和電池,如果哪一年水情再轉壞,那 29GW 的燃氣機組就會被叫回來。
資料來源: 美國能源資訊署、加州獨立系統營運機構 (圖片來自 @RichardMeyerDC)
California's Grid Burns 60% Less Gas, and Has Not Closed a Single Plant
Gas-fired generation on California's grid fell 62% between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026. Solar fills the daytime gap and batteries now carry the evening peak.
Gas capacity, however, has barely moved. Energy Information Administration figures show that between April 2024 and April 2026 solar capacity on the California grid rose 19% to 25 GW and battery capacity jumped 79% to 16 GW, while gas capacity held at 29 GW. Not one gas plant has retired. They have been demoted from workhorse to backup, idle most of the time and expected to step in the moment they are needed.
An outside condition has been helping too. Electricity imports doubled over the same two years, mostly hydropower from the Pacific Northwest as the drought lifted and wind from New Mexico that only began flowing in April, while demand grew 7%. In-state solar and batteries are not the whole story behind that 62%, and a bad water year would bring those 29 GW of gas plants straight back.
Source: US Energy Information Administration and the California Independent System Operator (Image: @RichardMeyerDC)