CoreWeave Paper Leads the Selloff, Spreads Wider by Over 440 bp Since 9/28
Change in G-spread on data-center HY bonds since 9/28, by tenant ｜ CoreWeave 9.25 '30 wider by 444 bp, price down 10.36 pts
2026-11 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-11, page 10.
Samsung DRAM Stress Test: ASP Must Fall 91% From Peak to Reach Cash Cost
Samsung DRAM ASP, cost and operating margin, 1Q18-1Q29E ｜ A -47% ASP drop restores prior-cycle peak margin; -91% from peak needed to reach cash cost
US Announced Layoffs Fall to 43,994 in October, the Lowest October Since 2023
Challenger monthly US job cuts and reasons ｜ October's 43,994 is the lowest October since 2023; economic conditions rise to 92% of cuts as AI falls to 3%
Data-Center Bans and Pauses Are Rising Exponentially
Cumulative data-center bans and pauses, 2025–2026 ｜ About 525 cases, rising sharply since late 2025
US Unemployment Rate Projected at 4.2% for October
US unemployment rate, trailing 12 months ｜ October projected 4.2%, within a 4.1%–4.5% range over the past year
Data-Center HY Bond Spreads: CoreWeave Unsecured Tops 1,100 bp
G-spread on 24 HY data-center bonds, grouped by tenant ｜ CoreWeave unsecured at 1,120 bp, far above Amazon/Meta-tenant bonds
S&P 500 Dealer Gamma Turns Deeply Negative at About −$7.3B
S&P 500 dealer aggregate gamma per 1% move, 2019–2026 ｜ Now about −$7.3B, near the low of the range
VIX Falls 19.5% in a Single Day to 16.76
Cboe VIX daily with 1-day rate of change ｜ Latest 1-day move −19.5%, index at 16.76 amid sharp swings
VIX Gauge Rises to 23.57, Into the 'Chop' Zone
VIX regime gauge ｜ Now 23.57, in the 20–29 chop band, above the 9–19 low-volatility zone
All 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average Stocks Fall as the Advance Count Drops to Zero
Daily count of advancing Dow Industrials members, 2023-2026 ｜ Latest reading falls to 0, with all 30 components lower
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls 34% From Its Peak
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) daily with drawdown, 2023–2026 ｜ Latest 9,608, down 34.4% from its high
ISM Services: 15 Industries Report Growth in October, Up From 13
Number of ISM non-manufacturing industries reporting growth, 2016-2026 ｜ Rose to 15 in October from 13, well above the 2020 low of 2
Major Oil Supply Shocks Have Lasted 54 Months on Average
Length of past oil supply shocks and production hit after four years ｜ Average 54 months, production down about 42%
Mega-Cap Tech Sells Off Broadly: Nvidia −6.25%, Micron −12.3%
US large-cap single-day performance heatmap ｜ Nvidia −6.25%, Micron −12.3%, AMD −13.71% lead tech lower
US Q3 Labor Productivity Rises 3.6% QoQ, Above the Long-Run Average
US nonfarm labor productivity, QoQ annualized, 2000–2026 ｜ Q3 +3.6%, above the ~2.1% average since 2000
Gold's YoY Change Returns to Below Its Model 'Fair' Value
Gold YoY vs a model of real yields, dollar, S&P and copper, 2021–2026 ｜ Actual-minus-model back to about −10 ppts
WTI Front-Month Crude Pulls Back to ~$83, Just Above Its 200-DMA
Front-month WTI crude, past year with technicals ｜ Near $83, just above the 200-day average as Z-Score and 14-day RSI roll over
All 11 US Sectors Close Lower, Information Technology Down 7.3%
S&P 500 sector single-day performance ｜ Information Technology −7.3%, Industrials −4.12%, every sector red
AAII Poll: 55.5% Say the Fed Was Right to Keep Rates Unchanged
AAII members on the Fed's decision to hold rates ｜ 55.5% call it the right move, 30.7% leaned toward a hike, just 6.6% toward a cut
AAII Bullish Sentiment Falls to 34.1% as Bearish Rises to 48.4%
AAII investor bullish and bearish readings, weekly, 2024–2026 ｜ Bulls 34.1%, bears 48.4%, pessimism at a seven-week high
Median PE IRR by Strategy: SMID Buyout Leads at 13.5%, Venture Capital Lowest at 9.2%
Median IRR and dispersion across four PE strategies ｜ SMID buyout median 13.5% tops the group; venture capital 9.2% with the widest spread
Odds of a Hike at the Dec 9 Fed Meeting Fall to 67.1%
Target-rate probabilities for the Dec 9 FOMC (current 375–400 bp) ｜ 400–425 bp at 67.1%, down from 82.7% a day earlier
Nasdaq 100 Falls 6.4% in a Single Day to About 26,630
Nasdaq 100 daily with 1-day rate of change ｜ −6.36% (about 1,807 points), among the largest single-day drops in years
US Equities Close Broadly Lower, Led by Chips and Mega-Cap Tech
S&P 500 full-market single-day performance heatmap ｜ Nvidia −9.26%, Micron −17.46%, AMD −17.26%, most sectors red
S&P 500 Rallies Then Slumps Over Two Days, Erasing About $3T
S&P 500 10-minute chart, Nov 4–5 ｜ +$1.2T after the election, then about −$3T on Nov 5
Only 70 S&P 500 Stocks Advance, the Fewest of the Year
Daily count of advancing S&P 500 members, past year ｜ Just 70 today, the fewest in 2026, down from a high of 447 last November
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall Back to 189k
US initial jobless claims, weekly, 2023–2026 ｜ Latest 189k, near the low end of the recent range
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall Back to 189,000, Matching the Lowest Since 1969
Weekly US initial jobless claims since 1969 ｜ 189,000 for the week of Oct 31 ties July 18 as the lowest since 1969; four-week average 194,750
Nvidia Falls Below Its 200-Day Moving Average, Down 8.57%
Nvidia daily with 200-day moving average ｜ Closed 182.97, below the 200-DMA at 204.68, −8.57% on the day
Speculators Return to the Gold Market
CFTC COMEX gold managed-money net futures vs spot gold ｜ Net longs peaked near 142k in Sept, pulled back, now ticking up
NYSE New 52-Week Highs Rise to 150
NYSE new 52-week highs, daily ｜ Latest 150, up from 38 the prior day
$MELANIA Meme Coin Down 99.6% From Its Jan 2025 Peak to $0.06
$MELANIA price, Jan 2025–Nov 2026 ｜ Down 99.6% from the $13.73 peak to $0.06
DJIA Posts a +3.03% Single-Day Gain Near the Nov 4 Election
Dow Jones with 1-day rate of change, 2020–2026 ｜ +3.03% on 2026-11-04, echoing surges near past Election Days
October Was Retail's 5th-Largest Accumulation of US Equities on Record
Citadel retail equities net notional, average daily by month (indexed to average), since 2020 ｜ October near 2.4x average
S&P 500 Q3 EPS Growth 30.2%, With 82% of Firms Beating Estimates
Carson Q3 earnings-season snapshot (298 of 500 reported as of 10/30) ｜ EPS +30.2% YoY, 82% beating EPS, revenue +13.4%
US Initial Claims 4-Week Average Falls to 194.75k; Continuing Claims 1.718M
US initial claims 4-week average (R) and continuing claims (L), weekly ｜ 4-wk avg 194.75k, continuing 1.718M
US October Nonfarm Payrolls Projected to Rise 65,000
US nonfarm payrolls, monthly change, trailing 12 months (projected) ｜ October projected +65k, above September's +29k
Nasdaq 100 Drawdown From Peak Reaches 14.65%
Nasdaq 100 drawdown from all-time high, 1985–2026 ｜ Now −14.65%, among the deeper pullbacks of 2026
US Treasury Curve Spreads: 10Y–2Y and 10Y–3M Both Positive
US 10Y–2Y (red) and 10Y–3M (blue) spreads, year to date ｜ 10Y–3M about 0.75, 10Y–2Y about 0.35, an upward-sloping curve
VanEck Semiconductor ETF Drops 9.9% in a Day, Echoing March 2020
SMH semiconductor ETF daily with 1-day rate of change ｜ Closed 454.56, −9.86%, a drop comparable to March 2020
VIX Jumps 69.7% to 28.17; Stocks Were Usually Higher a Month After Such Spikes
S&P 500 performance after past VIX/VVIX one-day spikes ｜ After 60%+ VIX jumps, the S&P was higher 100% of the time a month later, averaging +3.2%
Flexible-Interconnection Rules Decide How Much Load Fits, Up to 125GW Under the Energy Rule
Largest new load meeting each curtailment criterion, GW ｜ Up to 125GW under a 1% annual-energy rule, falling to 50-75GW under hours/event caps
Iran's Oil Exports Collapse to Near Zero Under the US Blockade
Iranian crude exports and loadings, million barrels a day ｜ From 2.0m b/d in March to 0.24m in August and near zero by November
US Information-Sector Payrolls Fall to ~2.74M From a Late-2022 Peak
US nonfarm payrolls, information sector ｜ Down to ~2.74M from a ~3.11M peak in late 2022, declining since the ChatGPT release
Goldman's Memory-Stock Basket Up 540% Since ChatGPT, Down 51% From Peak
Goldman TMT memory-exposed basket, cumulative gain and drawdown since Nov 2022 ｜ Off the June peak of +1,202% to +540%, a 51% drawdown
Brent Crude Falls ~$20/bbl on the Week to $97.95, Largest Weekly Drop Since Mid-April
Intraweek Brent prompt futures and the Brent forward curve ｜ Settled at $97.95, down $19.69 on the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April
S&P 500 Q3 EPS Growth 24%, Below 27% ex-Mag-7
S&P 500 vs S&P 500 ex-Mag-7 EPS growth by quarter ｜ Q3'26 index +24% trails ex-Mag-7 +27%, the first lag since 2022
Nittobo's Vlex Glass Cloth Cuts CTE to 2.0, Below T-Glass 2.8
Glass cloth CTE and modulus comparison ｜ Vlex CTE 2.0 ppm/°C beats T 2.8 and NE 3.3 for larger package substrates
Brent Crude Falls 13.16% on the Week to $98.51, Near Its Worst Week Since April 2020
Weekly Brent crude spot price since 2017 ｜ Down 13.16% this week to $98.51, nearly the steepest weekly drop since April 2020
iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) Drops ~12.5% in a Single Day
SOXX daily % change since 2003 ｜ A ~12.5% fall on Nov 5 2026, among the largest single-day declines on record
US Manufacturing Employment Growth Rebounds to a Multiyear High Alongside PMI
US manufacturing employment growth (6m annualized) vs PMI ｜ Employment growth has rebounded to a multiyear high as PMI firms up
Global Oil & Gas Demand at Record High, With a ~50 MMBD Supply Gap by 2035
Chevron: global oil & gas demand, the oil supply gap and gas demand by sector ｜ Demand at a record high; declining supply opens a ~50 MMBD gap by 2035
S&P 500 Info Tech's YTD Gain Shrinks From 31% to 9.5% in a Month
S&P 500 sector YTD returns, change over one month ｜ Info Tech fell from +31% to +9.5% as lagging sectors like Energy caught up
US October Payrolls Rise 165k, Unemployment 4.1%, Wage Growth Eases to 3.12% Y/Y
US jobs: monthly payrolls, unemployment rate and hourly earnings ｜ October payrolls +165k, jobless rate 4.141%, and average hourly earnings up 3.12% y/y
Goldman's High-Beta Momentum Basket Swings From +69% to -17.7% YTD
GS high-beta momentum basket return, 2026 ｜ From a June 22 peak of +69% to -17.7% year to date
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Pulls Back as EPS Estimates Keep Rising
SOX index price vs forward EPS estimate, 2020-2026 ｜ Price has fallen to ~9,281 while the earnings estimate climbs to a record ~141
KOSPI Semiconductor FY3 P/B Falls to ~0.7x, a Historical Low
KOSPI semiconductor FY3 P/B vs forward 12-month return ｜ Latest P/B ~0.7x, a historical trough that has mapped to stronger forward returns
Brent Crude vs Fed Pricing, Rates, the Dollar, Stocks and Gold: Six Charts
Front-month Brent futures against Fed pricing, 2y real rate, breakeven, the dollar, S&P 500 and gold, 2026 ｜ As of Nov 6, oil tracks the dollar and stocks while diverging from gold
US Business IT Investment Rises to 2.21% of GDP, Near Its 2000 Peak
US vs UK business investment in computers & comms gear, % of GDP ｜ US at 2.21%, near the 2000 dotcom peak and 1.3pp above the UK's 0.66%
S&P 500 Two-Day Swing Hits 8.55, the Largest Round-Trip Since 2007
Largest two-day total move per month, index points, 2007-2026 ｜ Nov 5 reached 8.55 (-3.59 then +4.96), topping the 2013 record of 7.87
S&P 500 Averages +6.65% in 3 Months After a 4% Drop, vs 2.24% Normally
S&P 500 average change after 56 prior 4%+ one-day drops ｜ +2.04% next month and +6.65% over three months, above all-period averages
US Consumer Credit Jumps $27.8B in September, Most Since Nov 2022
Monthly change in US consumer credit (USD billion) ｜ September +$27.8B, the largest monthly gain since November 2022
MSCI EM Forward P/E Falls to About 8x, the Lowest Since 2009
MSCI EM 12-month forward P/E, 2008-2026 ｜ Down to roughly 8x, the lowest since 2009 and well below its long-run average
Bloomberg Commodity Index Hits a Record High in October, Secular Bull Intact
Bloomberg Commodity spot index, monthly since 1925, log scale ｜ A new all-time high in October keeps the long-run uptrend intact
Top 10 States Hold Over 70% of US Data-Center Pipeline, Led by Texas at 47GW
US data-center IT power capacity pipeline by state, 1H 2026 ｜ Texas 47GW, Virginia 33GW and Georgia 26GW; the top 10 states exceed 70%
Iranian Rial's Daily Gains vs USD in Standard Deviations, Spikes on Nov 4
Daily rise in the Iranian rial vs USD, in historical standard deviations ｜ A ~+5σ move on 6/15 and fresh positive spikes through 11/4
US Monthly Payroll Gains Rebound to 165k, 3-Month Average at 137k
US nonfarm payroll net monthly change, seasonally adjusted ｜ Latest +165k, with the 3-month moving average up to 137k
S&P 500 Q3 2026 Earnings Grow 31.4%, Above the 29.1% Sept-30 Estimate
S&P 500 Y/Y earnings growth by sector, Q3 2026 ｜ Blended +31.4% vs 29.1% on Sept 30, with Energy leading at +149%
US Labor Force Participation Rises to 61.9% in October
US labor force participation rate, overall vs men vs women ｜ October up to 61.9%; men ~66.8% and women ~56.5%
Nasdaq Composite Pulls Back to 24,579, Nearing Long-Term Support
Nasdaq Composite index, 2024-2026 ｜ Back to 24,579, approaching a multiyear rising support line
Dated Brent at $96.31 Slips Below $98.29 Prompt Futures
Brent physical vs financial curve, Nov 5 2026 ｜ Dated Brent $96.31 now under prompt futures $98.29, front of curve in contango
Odds of a December Rate Hike Rise to 76.8%, Up From 66.9% a Day Earlier
CME FedWatch probabilities for the Dec 9 FOMC ｜ A hike to 400-425bp is priced at 76.8%, up from 66.9% a day earlier
US Leveraged ETF Inflows Hit $9.5B in a Week, SOXL Takes $7.0B
US leveraged ETF weekly inflows by fund ｜ $9.5B total, with 3x semi SOXL +$7.0B vs TQQQ +$1.3B and others +$1.2B
Korean Retail Net Buying of US Stocks Hits ~$5B in October, a 2026 High
Korean retail monthly net purchases of US equities ｜ October 2026 ~$5B, the largest month of 2026
USD/BRL Climbs to 5.50, About One Real Above Fair Value of 4.50
USD/BRL exchange rate, 2020-2026 ｜ ~5.50 on 2026-11-06, about one real above the 4.50 fair-value line
Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index Climbs to 344, Breaking Above a Decades-Long Trendline
Philadelphia Gold & Silver (XAU) index, monthly candles, log scale ｜ Now 344, breaking above a trendline spanning three-plus decades
Tech Momentum Collapses After a Historic Rally; 98-Day Change at ~-70%
Morgan Stanley US TMT momentum pair vs rolling 98-day change ｜ Index spiked near 500 then fell; the 98-day change swung from +100% to ~-70%
New York Metro Population by Race, 2020 Census Dot Map
NYC metro population by race, 2020 Census ｜ One dot = 150 people; White, Hispanic, Black and Asian residents cluster into distinct areas
UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectation at 4.3%, 5-10 Year at 3.4%
UMich median inflation expectations, 1-year vs 5-10 year, 1990-2026 ｜ Near-term 4.3% and long-run 3.4%, both elevated vs the 2010s
84% of S&P 500 Beat Q3 EPS Estimates, Led by Energy and Tech
Share of S&P 500 companies above/in-line/below EPS estimates, Q3 2026 ｜ 84% beat overall; Energy 95% and Info Tech 94% lead, Materials 57%
US Levered/Inverse ETFs Draw Record $13bn Inflow in October 2026
Monthly fund flows into US-listed levered/inverse ETFs ｜ October 2026 saw +$13bn, the largest monthly inflow on record
EOG Gas Sales Volumes to Rise to 1,040K MMBtu/day by 2030
EOG gross gas sales volumes and pricing mix (K MMBtu/day) ｜ From 720 in 2026 to 1,040 by 2030, adding JKM- and Brent-linked contracts
UMich Consumer Sentiment 51.0 in Early November; Republicans 80.9 vs Democrats 35.9
University of Michigan sentiment overall and by party ｜ Headline 51.0, with Republicans at 80.9 far above Democrats at 35.9 and Independents rebounding to 52.1
South Korea's KOSPI Falls 44% From Its June Peak, Nearing GFC-Era Drawdown Levels
KOSPI 12-month rolling maximum drawdown since 1990 ｜ The current 44% drawdown is approaching the 52-53% lows seen in the GFC and dot-com busts
S&P 500 Falls 2.68% on the Week, Its Worst Since April 2025
S&P 500 weekly % change, 2025 to date ｜ Latest week -2.68%, the biggest weekly drop since April 2025
MSCI USA Momentum ETF (MTUM) Falls 8.2% in a Day, Most Since March 2020
MTUM daily change since 2013 ｜ Latest -8.2%, its third-largest drop on record after -12.4% in 2020
S&P 500 Q3 2026 EPS Growth at 31.4% Y/Y; Energy Leads at 149%, Tech 69%
S&P 500 Y/Y earnings growth by sector, Q3 2026 ｜ Index-wide 31.4%, led by Energy at 149.4% with Consumer Discretionary lowest at 3.9%
QQQ Daily Notional Volume Hits a Record $86bn on Nov 5
QQQ daily notional volume ($ billions), 1999-2026 ｜ Nov 5 reached $86bn, an all-time high
US Leads Nuclear Generation at ~775 TWh in 2025, Germany at Zero
Nuclear power generation by country (TWh per year), 1965-2025 ｜ US ~775, China ~470, France ~360, Germany down to 0 in 2025
Employment Services Led US Job Gains in October, Adding Over 20k
Job change by professional & business services subsector ｜ Employment services added 20k+ in October, far above its prior 3-month average
S&P 500 2027 Bottom-Up EPS Estimate Climbs to 424.96
S&P 500 CY2026 and CY2027 bottom-up EPS, past year ｜ 2027 at 424.96 and 2026 at 365.35, both revised steadily higher
US Monthly Payroll Gains Rebound to 165k, 3-Month Average at 137k
US nonfarm payroll net monthly change, seasonally adjusted ｜ Latest +165k, with the 3-month moving average up to 137k
Shipping US Crude to Asia Now Costs $30-35/bbl, 6.5x in a Year
Freight cost for US Gulf Coast crude to Asia ($/bbl) ｜ From ~$5 a year ago to $30-35 now, a 6.5x jump favoring US refiners
Canada's Oil Patch Sees C$35bn of 2026 Upstream Deals, Shell-ARC 64%
Canadian upstream oil & gas deals above C$1bn in 2026 ｜ Six deals total C$35bn, led by Shell-ARC at C$22.3bn (64% of the total)
Share of MSCI EM Stocks Above Their 200-Day Average Falls to ~25%, Lowest Since March 2020
% of MSCI EM constituents trading above their 200-day moving average ｜ Now ~25%, the lowest since March 2020 and well below the 56.5% average
US Business IT Investment Rises to 2.21% of GDP, Near Its 2000 Peak
US vs UK business investment in computers & comms gear, % of GDP ｜ US at 2.21%, near the 2000 dotcom peak and 1.3pp above the UK's 0.66%
US Insured Unemployment 4-Week Average Falls to ~1.71M, Jobless Rate 4.14%
Insured unemployment (state, 4-wk avg) vs unemployment rate ｜ Claims down to 1,709.5k while the jobless rate holds at 4.14%, diverging
S&P 500 Next-12-Month Returns Are Lowest (~1-5%) When the VIX Starts in the 22-28 Range
Next-12-month S&P 500 return by starting VIX level, 1991-2022 ｜ The VIX 22.8-28.7 buckets show the lowest forward returns at ~1-5%, versus ~27% when the VIX is above 33.5
S&P 500 Annual Returns of 8-10% Are Rare, Just 4 Times Since 1950
S&P 500 calendar-year returns, 1950-2026 ｜ Only 4 years landed in the 8-10% band; 2026 is up 8.0% year to date
NYH Diesel Crack at $90.56, 3-2-1 Crack Spread at $47.31
NYH diesel crack vs 3-2-1 crack spread (vs WTI, $/bbl) ｜ Diesel crack $90.56 and 3-2-1 at $47.31, both easing from September highs