Key points
Next-12-month S&P 500 return by starting VIX level, 1991-2022 ｜ The VIX 22.8-28.7 buckets show the lowest forward returns at ~1-5%, versus ~27% when the VIX is above 33.5
Image source: @MikeZaccardi
2026-11-07
S&P 500 Next-12-Month Returns Are Lowest (~1-5%) When the VIX Starts in the 22-28 Range