English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 34.
Musk's humanoid-robot market forecast and Taiwan supply chain ｜ At least 1 billion units within 10 years, ~10 billion in 15, and possibly over 100 billion in 20
S&P 500 index and net 52-week highs minus lows, past year ｜ Index near 7,774, an all-time high, while net new highs fall to -23, a breadth divergence
European diesel premium over Brent crude ($/bbl) ｜ Up from ~$20 at the start of the year to ~$90 in September on US export-ban talk
S&P 500 average monthly return in midterm years, 1950-2025 ｜ October averages +3.0% and rises 73.7% of the time; November +2.7%, June weakest at -2.1%
USGC ULSD-WTI diesel crack vs US 10-year yield, late Aug to Sep ｜ Diesel crack near $108/bbl moving closely with the 10-year yield above 5%
US 2Y Treasury yield, daily ｜ Up from about 4.15% in August to 4.84%, a two-year high
5-year Treasury auction history and tail/through ｜ Awarded at 5.033%, the first 5%+ since 2007, with a +3.1bp tail, second-largest on record
Cloud providers' hardware capex and AI memory value share, 2022-2030E ｜ Memory share rises from pre-AI <10% to ~31% in 2026E and peaks near 60% in 2028E
SOXX price and technicals (Z-score, RSI, MACD), past year ｜ The Z-score swung from oversold to extreme overbought in four trading days, the fastest in its history
BWET tanker shipping ETF, daily (USD) ｜ Up 8.41% on the day to 739.40, after a strong rebound from its mid-year lows
S&P net new 52-week highs minus lows (count) ｜ Now -8, a 7-day streak of more lows than highs, the longest since April 2025
Richmond Fed manufacturing index (ISM-adjusted), 2000-2026 ｜ Fell to 50.8 in September, just above the 50 breakeven and still in expansion
Z.AI and MiniMax shares, normalized to 09/18 ｜ By 9/23 Z.AI fell ~85% and MiniMax ~30% amid a data-security probe
Trailing-12M capex vs free cash flow for Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet, 2016-2027 ｜ Capex heading above $1T while FCF slips below zero
VLCC spot rates from the Middle East to China, $mn per day ｜ Rates reach about $1.25mn a day, up more than 40-fold year to date and above $1.2mn for the first time
NYSE new 52-week lows, daily, Oct 2025-Sep 2026 ｜ 363 on 9/23 (+221, +155.6%), with a recent peak of 374, the highest in the range
McDonald's ($MCD) daily price and volume ｜ Down 5.3% to $237 on heavy volume, about 30% off its high
S&P 500 with rare narrow-breadth markers ｜ Index within 1% of ATH yet under 31% above 50-day SMA, seen only twice since 2006
Contributions to US annual core PCE inflation from tariffs, AI buildout and energy (pp) ｜ Peaks near 1.0 pp in 2026, easing through 2027
Anthropic top-1% customer spend and share, Nov-2024 to Aug-2026 ｜ Top-1% average monthly spend rose to ~$2.8M, ~45% of combined spend
FOMC risk-weighting diffusion for GDP, PCE and unemployment ｜ All three tilt to upside risk for the first time since 2021
Share of S&P 500 industry groups above their 10-week average vs the index, 2018-2026 ｜ It recently fell from 81% to 15%, meaning 85% are below, a sharp narrowing of breadth
Equity market returns by country, Q3 2026 (%) ｜ In CHF terms Japan +6.7% leads, Switzerland about -2.5% lags
US-listed ETF cumulative flows by year, in $ trillions ｜ 2026 reaches about $1.35T by early September, outpacing the 2025 and 2024 tracks
HCOB Germany manufacturing and services PMI, 2022-2026 ｜ September manufacturing 53.8 (prev 54.3), services up to 52.9 from 49.7
US 30-year Treasury yield, long-term, 2002-2026 ｜ Now at 5.40%, the highest in over 22 years, breaking above its pre-2007 range
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF price ｜ Down to ~$78, a record low as inflation and higher rates weigh
Price of Meta's 'Project Beignet' 6.581% senior secured notes due 2049, past year ｜ Falls to 93.785, a record low, as the world's largest corporate bond is caught in the bond-market selloff
GS Consumer Inertia index vs S&P 500 Financials ｜ Inertia at 89.90, Financials at 912.05, both easing in recent months
AI consumer-agent benchmark matrix and use cases (J.P. Morgan) ｜ Muse leads with an overall 9.3, ahead of Instinct at 8.5, spanning shopping, bookings, personal finance and productivity
LME copper futures, $/ton, 2023-2026 ｜ Rises to about $14,000 a ton, a fresh record high and nearly double the roughly $8,000 level of 2023
5-year US Treasury auction tail/through, 2018-2026 ｜ Latest auction tails 3.05bp, awarding 5.033% above the when-issued level, the second largest tail on record
State Street Risk Holdings Indicator, allocation to equity ｜ Around 57%, the highest in roughly 25 years
Change in real wages, selected European countries, 2004-2024 ｜ Poland +107.9% and Czechia +106.6% lead; Italy is nearly flat at +0.48% and Spain +2.76%
Iran parallel exchange rate, millions of rial per US dollar ｜ Reaches about 2.35 million on Sep 22, accelerating since July as the rial keeps weakening
US Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs ｜ September composite near 58, with both surveys at their strongest since 2022
US import shipping costs as a share of customs value by source country, 2001-2022 (%) ｜ Averaged above 8% in the pandemic, ~75% above normal, with China highest at 7.2%
Median interest coverage ratio (EBIT/interest) ｜ Mag 7 at 31.9x vs S&P 493 at 6.6x and small caps at just 1.4x
US net worth by percentile ($trillions), Q4 2019 vs Q2 2026 ｜ The bottom 50% rose 129% from $1.9T to $4.3T, while the top 0.1% gained 106% to $27.9T
Retail cash equities average daily net notional, indexed to 1Y average, by month ｜ September at 0.95x, below the 1.0x average; peaks were ~1.9x in January and ~1.85x in June
US M2 money supply (USD bn) ｜ Up $124.9bn in August to a record $23.34tn, a 28th straight monthly gain, +5.7% YoY
France average annual earnings, three layers, 1951-2024 (2024 euros) ｜ Employer cost €63k, gross €43.7k, net €33.2k
Fed funds futures implied-yield curve ｜ Latest curve near 4.7%, well above the ~3.1% priced seven months ago
Goldman Fed funds scenarios and probability-weighted path, 2024-2028 ｜ The baseline (50%) sees two hikes then cuts to 3.25-3.5%; the weighted path stays below market pricing
Share of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 YTD, by sector ｜ Energy leads at 91%, Utilities last at 3%, index-wide 37%
US ADP weekly employment, 4-week moving average net change WoW ｜ Latest ~+20k per week, up for a third straight week off the 2025 lows
MBA US Mortgage Market Index, weekly % change SA ｜ -1.5% in the week to Sept 18, a third straight weekly decline
US 10Y Treasury yield, monthly, 2006-2026 ｜ Now 5.03%, back to the highest level since 2007
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), daily ｜ At 12,534, down 1.23%, consolidating below the ~14,000 June high
Change in GDP per capita if the capital city were removed, European countries over 10 million people ｜ Czechia (Prague) at -22.5% is the deepest, Germany (Berlin) at -0.4% the smallest
DRAM/NAND capacity-addition timeline and scale by fab across six memory makers, in wafers per month ｜ SK Hynix's two Yongin fabs each add 400k, Samsung's P5 adds 300k, phased in from 2027 to 2030
WTI-Brent near-month spread, 30-minute bars, past month ｜ Spread widens to about -$10.9, out more than 25% on the month, with a low of -11.09
Cloud revenue estimates and B200 rental index, indexed to start of 2026 ｜ The B200 rental index is +30.2% YTD while 2028 cloud-revenue estimates are +35.6% and 2027 +25.6%
US 30-year Treasury yield (TYX), 2002-2026 ｜ Touched ~5.42% on 9/23, the highest since June 2004
Rolling one-week ETF flows by category (US$bn) ｜ US large-cap +$9.6B and broad equity +$9.6B lead; small-cap -$2.0B is the biggest outflow
GS AI basket vs Silicon Data GPU-rental and token-spend indices, 2024-2026 ｜ AI basket 249 to 473 then back to 387; LLM token-spend 50-day change swung from +56% to -49%
Share of renewables in net electricity generation by EU country, Q2 2026 ｜ EU-wide 54.1%; Latvia highest at 97.7%, Slovenia lowest at 19.8%
France-Germany 10-year government bond spread, 2007-2026 (bps) ｜ Now 104bp, the widest since the 2012 euro-area crisis
Information and energy available per person, analogue-fossil vs digital-electric ｜ Energy 17.5 MWh to 790 MWh of solar and wind; information 25GB to 100 million GB
Share of central banks hiking each quarter by region, 2021-2026 ｜ Developed markets rise to about 78% and EM Asia ex-China to roughly 62%, a renewed tightening wave
KBW Bank Index (BKX) daily with 200-day average ｜ Down to 176, edging toward the 200-DMA near 172
Nvidia price-to-forward-earnings, 2017-2026 ｜ Down from a peak above 60x in 2021 to the low-teens, a multi-year low
USGC ULSD–WTI diesel crack vs US 10Y yield ｜ Crack near $110/bbl as the 10-year yield pushes above 5%
Individual stocks' contribution to the S&P 500 vs their price change since late 2022 ｜ Nvidia contributes about 16% and is up over 1,200%; Apple and Alphabet rank next with more modest gains
Global market implied ERP by region, 2001-2026 (%) ｜ Asia ex-Japan 5.1% highest, US 2.8% and Japan 2.6% at the low end
China DRAM and NAND capacity and bit share, 2022-2028E ｜ DRAM capacity share rises to 16% and bit share to 11%, while NAND bit share also reaches 16%
Philadelphia Fed NBOS full-time permanent employees diffusion index, monthly, SA ｜ September leaps to 19.0, up about 17 points on the month, a four-year high
HBM bit supply/demand and glut ratio, 2023-2028E ｜ Deficit of -20% in 2026E, -19% in 2027E, -16% in 2028E, a persistent shortage
US 2-year Treasury note yield, past year ｜ Up to 4.90%, the first time since May 2024
Household final consumption per capita, PPP (2021 int'l $), 2024 ｜ Massachusetts $59,965 and US $51,564; lowest state Idaho $44,396 still tops top foreign economy Bermuda $40,684
Copper price, past year ｜ Rises to about $6.75, close to an all-time high and up more than 40% over the past year
Nvidia & SpaceX 5-year CDS, 2025-2026 ｜ Nvidia jumps from ~40bp to above 80bp and SpaceX nears 160bp as AI leaders' credit costs rise together
Russia's NWF liquid portion (bn rubles / % GDP) ｜ Down from ~8.4tn rubles in 2022 to ~4.1tn, from 7.5% to about 2% of GDP
Share of new US single-family homes by floor area, 1978-2025 ｜ The largest homes (2,400+ sq ft) peaked at 53% in 2017 and are now 41%; homes under 1,200 sq ft just 5%
AAPL vs S&P 500 return, 5-year ｜ AAPL +132.6% vs S&P 500 +75.2%, a ~57pp lead
Global gold ETF holdings, tonnes, by region ｜ Total near 4,250 tonnes, an all-time high led by North America
Global market implied equity risk premium (%), 2001-2026 ｜ The US falls to 2.8% and Japan 2.6%, while Asia Pacific ex-Japan holds at 5.1% and Europe at 3.6%
US 30-year fixed contract mortgage rate, 2007-2026 (%) ｜ Now ~7.12%, back above 7% and the highest since 2024
SPY vs unrebalanced 60/40, return and weights ｜ Now 92% stocks / 8% bonds; 663% total return vs SPY's 1,068%
US 10-year Treasury yield, Oct 2024 to present ｜ Up 0.147pp on Wednesday to 5.11%, the highest since July 2007 and the largest daily rise since April 2025
WTI and Brent crude prices (USD/barrel) ｜ On Sept 22 Brent $114.89 and WTI $96.41, a sharp rebound from the July lows
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (sa) ｜ September at 57.0, above the 53.7 estimate and 53.9 prior, a faster expansion
US 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate, 2007-2026 ｜ Recently rose to 7.12%, up 15bps in a week, the highest since May 2024
Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator (ratio-adjusted), daily, past year ｜ Latest reading rebounds to +4.04, its first positive turn in weeks, signaling improving short-term breadth momentum
OIS-implied Fed overnight rate and hikes priced, 2026-2027 ｜ Markets price about 3.5 hikes by September 2027, lifting the implied rate from 3.90% to ~4.79%
US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, last 5 years (bps) ｜ Now +19bp, back positive and steepening from the 2022-23 deep inversion
MSCI AC World consensus EPS by estimate year (USD) ｜ 2027 EPS rising toward ~72 as revisions stay unusually positive
US construction spending by month (USD bn) ｜ Data centers at $75B nearing multifamily's $115B; single-family at $395B
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF fund flow (USD mn) ｜ About -$1.1bn in a week, the largest weekly outflow since 2000
S&P 500 average daily advancers, 252-day and 5-year averages, 1996-2025 ｜ The 252-day average is ~256 in 2025, among the highest in 30 years and above the 250 advancers-decliners line
India and China crude imports from Russia (million barrels a day), 2021-2026 ｜ Combined flows surged after 2022 and recently hold near 3.0-3.5 mb/d, with China the larger share
Global seaborne diesel exports by country with US share, 2024-2026 ｜ US share up to ~20% from 12% at the start of the period
Copper: all history vs net-zero needs ｜ ~700mn tonnes mined in all of human history; ~1.4bn tonnes more needed for 2050 net zero, about double
Implied probabilities for the Fed target rate at the September 2027 meeting ｜ From a current 375-400bp, the market most favors 475-500bp at 31%, implying about 100bp of hikes
Russell 2000/NDX ratio vs the 10-year yield, trailing 12 months ｜ Yield near 4.95% while the ratio falls to about 0.945, a range low
S&P Regional Banking ETF ($KRE) daily ｜ At 70.38, down about 10% from the August high of 78.35
AI-enabled assets discovery cycle time (months) vs large-pharma benchmark ｜ Schrodinger SGR-1505 at 10 months and Recursion EXS21546 at 9, vs a large-pharma median of 32-50
Urals crude shipments to China and India, 2021-2025 (mb/d) ｜ China flows hit a record in December; combined ~2.0 mb/d, led by India
SOX members' drawdown from 52-week highs plus the 2000 SOX top ｜ Members average -25.7% and median -26.8%; in 2000 most components peaked after the index itself
Euro IG and HY 12-month total-return breakevens, in bp ｜ IG now about 100bp, the highest since 2022, with HY near 220bp