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2026-09-24

Goldman's Probability-Weighted Fed Path Stays Below Market Pricing

Goldman's Probability-Weighted Fed Path Stays Below Market Pricing

Key points

Goldman Fed funds scenarios and probability-weighted path, 2024-2028 | The baseline (50%) sees two hikes then cuts to 3.25-3.5%; the weighted path stays below market pricing

Image source: @neilsethinew