BofA Sees Systematic Equity Positioning at $434bn; a Down Week Sells $157bn
BofA systematic global equity positioning and scenario flows ｜ ~$434bn now, a down week sells ~$157bn (CTAs ~$130bn)
2026-09 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 33.
S&P 500 at 7,768 While Only 51% of Stocks Sit Above Their 200-Day Average
S&P 500 index and share of stocks above their 200-day moving average ｜ Index at 7,768 but breadth at just 51%, the fewest since early April
S&P 500 Forward P/E Falls to About 20x as Rate Expectations Rise
S&P 500 forward P/E versus futures-implied October 2026 Fed funds (inverted) ｜ Forward P/E down from 24x to about 20x as implied rates rise toward 3.8%
OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX Total $5.2T, More Than 45 Years of Tech IPOs
Valuation of three AI-era giants versus the combined first-day value of all US tech IPOs, 1980-2025 ｜ The three total $5.2T against $4.1T for 3,365 IPOs
German Federal Poll: AfD Leads at 29.5%, SPD Falls to 13.5%
INSA Bundestag voting-intention poll, Sept 22 ｜ AfD at 29.5% ahead of the Union at 19.5%, with SPD tied with the Greens at 13.5%
US 2-Year Treasury Auction Tails Just 0.2bp, Pointing to Steady Demand
2-year Treasury auction tail/through by auction ｜ Latest a 0.2bp tail at a 4.787% high yield, a mild result
Nvidia's Forward P/E Falls to About 16x, the Lowest in Over a Decade
Nvidia price to estimated profits ｜ Now about 16x, the least since 2016 and far below the ~65x peak of November 2021
Top 10 S&P 500 Companies Reach 40% of Index Weight, Above the 2000 Peak
Combined weight of the 10 largest S&P 500 companies ｜ Now 40%, above the ~27% dot-com peak
Large-Cap Mutual Funds Sit About 175bp Underweight AI Equities, a Record
Average large-cap mutual fund over/underweight in AI-exposed equities ｜ Now about 175bp underweight, the largest on record, versus a 40bp overweight in mid-2024
Largest City Economies: New York Reaches $6.4T by 2050, Shanghai Climbs to Third
Largest city economies by GDP, 2025 versus 2050 projection ｜ New York leads at $6.4T in 2050, Shanghai rises from 12th to 3rd, and three Chinese cities make the top ten
Firms' Tariff-Refund Plans: 75% Keep Cash, 52% Invest in R&D or Capex
How firms plan to use tariff refunds (Atlanta Fed) ｜ 75.2% keep as cash, 52.5% invest in R&D or capex
EU Sports Employment at 1.8 Million, 0.9% of Total, with Youth Overrepresented
EU employment in sports by sex and age, 2025 ｜ 1.8m people, 0.9% of total, 15-29 group at 36%
US Natural Gas Holds Near $3 While Europe and Asia Surge Above $25
Weekly natural gas futures, US vs Europe vs Asia (USD/MMBtu) ｜ Europe and Asia above $25 after the Iran conflict, US still near $3
Philly Fed Services Business Activity Index Drops to -22.0 from -10.6
Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity index ｜ September at -22.0, down from -10.6
Goldman's US Equity Sentiment Indicator Slips to -0.9, Near a One-Standard-Deviation Low
GS US equity sentiment indicator since 2010 ｜ Now -0.9, near -1 standard deviation and well below the +2.8 peak of November 2024
US Treasury Yields Rise Across Maturities in September, 30-Year at ~5.3%
US 2/5/10/30-year Treasury yields, year to date ｜ 30-year near 5.3% and 10-year near 4.95% as the whole curve moves higher
Consumer Staples/S&P 500 Ratio Falls to 0.12, Lowest Since April 2000
Consumer staples relative to the S&P 500 ｜ Now 0.12, the lowest since April 2000
Retail Buying in NVDA Nearly Matches All Single-Stock Flows
Trailing 5-day rolling sum of daily retail net flows in NVDA and all single stocks ｜ NVDA retail inflows have rebounded to nearly the entire single-stock net
Asia's AI Rally Fades as KOSPI and Taiwan's Taiex Pare Gains
Korea's KOSPI and Taiwan's Taiex intraday, Sept 22 ｜ Both slid from morning highs, KOSPI closed just +0.4%
Meta Leads Trillion-Dollar Stocks With an 11.34% Daily Gain, Far Ahead of Peers
One-day performance of trillion-dollar stocks on 9/21 ｜ Meta +11.34% leads, Tesla +3.03%, while Berkshire B lags at -1.52%
S&P 500 Holds Above Its 7,700 Breakout, Closing at 7,764, Up 1.49%
S&P 500 daily with 50-day MA, MACD and RSI ｜ Latest 7,764.70, up 1.49%, holding above the 7,700 breakout
Higher Starting 10Y Yields Map to Higher 7-Year Bond Returns, 97% Correlation
Starting 10Y yield decile vs forward 7-year bond return ｜ Lowest decile 1.9%, highest 13.6%, 97% correlation
Saudi Red Sea Crude Loadings Ease to ~1.75 Mb/d, Exits Split Across Routes
Saudi Red Sea crude loading and exit routes (Mb/d, 10-day avg) ｜ Loadings off a ~6 Mb/d peak to ~1.75 Mb/d
Galway Metals Rebounds to C$0.82, Up From Its July Low Near C$0.44
Galway Metals (GWM), past year daily ｜ Latest C$0.82, up from the ~C$0.44 July low, with a 52-week high of C$1.01
US 10Y-2Y Yield Spread Narrows to ~0.20 as the Curve Flattens Again
US Treasury term spreads, 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M ｜ The 10Y-2Y spread has narrowed to ~0.20
Years of Salary to Buy 80 m²: Hong Kong Tops at 48, Chicago Lowest at 5
Years of salary to buy an 80 m² home by city ｜ Hong Kong 48 years tops the list, Chicago just 5
Goldman: Temporary Inflation Drivers Fading, Core PCE Seen Falling to ~2.2% by 2027
Core PCE inflation and the temporary factors behind it, 2025-2027 with GS forecast ｜ Temporary drivers peak near 1.6pp then fade, with core PCE seen easing to ~2.2% by 2027
Goldman Sees Temporary Inflation Drivers Fading as Core PCE Peaks Mid-2026
Core PCE inflation and the contribution of temporary factors (GS forecast) ｜ Core PCE peaks near 3.4% around mid-2026 as tariff and energy effects fade
Moderna Climbs to $183, Well Above Its ~$50 Summer Low
Moderna (MRNA), past year daily ｜ Latest ~$183, up 8.24% on the day and far above the ~$50 summer low
Global Gold ETFs Drew +27.1 Tonnes Last Week, the 3rd-Largest Weekly Inflow Since January
Global gold ETF weekly flows, tonnes ｜ +27.1t last week, an 11th straight weekly inflow lifting holdings to a record 4,250t
BofA Survey: 55% of Managers See "No Landing," Just 2% Expect a Hard Landing
BofA fund manager survey on the global economy ｜ 55% no landing, 38% soft landing, only 2% hard landing
Filings Citing 'Speed to Power' Surge to About 780 in the Trailing Year
Commission filings mentioning 'Speed to Power' or 'Time to Power', trailing 12 months ｜ Up from under 50 before 2024 to about 780, reflecting the data-center power scramble
The Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Rebounds to About 20, Breaking Above Its Long-Term Trendline
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio since 2015 ｜ Back near 20 after falling below 15 in late 2025, rising above its long-term uptrend line
Big Tech Capex Seen Topping $1 Trillion Next Year as Free Cash Flow Turns Negative
Trailing 12-month capex vs free cash flow at Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet ｜ Capex nears $1T into 2027 while combined FCF swings negative
China-Origin Models Hit 61.2T Weekly Tokens on OpenRouter, Topping US-Origin's 21.8T
Weekly token usage on OpenRouter, China- vs US-origin models ｜ China-origin now 61.2T vs US 21.8T, after the first crossover in February 2026
DB Risk-Parity Model Lifts US Equity Weight to the 86th Percentile, Bonds to 26th
Deutsche Bank risk-parity model weights across equities, bonds and commodities ｜ US equity at the 86th percentile and commodities at the 95th, while bonds sit at the 26th
Strategic Minor Minerals Surge to an Index of ~280, Leading a Critical-Minerals Rebound
Price index for critical minerals by category, January 2023 = 100 ｜ Strategic minor minerals near 280 lead, with base metals ~130 and battery metals only ~75
Sub-Saharan Clean-Cooking Gains Accelerate, Closing on Population Growth
Clean-cooking access vs population growth in sub-Saharan Africa (million people) ｜ 2025 gains near the ~32m total population growth
SB Energy / Stargate Data-Center Funding Structure: SoftBank Control, NVIDIA Guarantee
Entities and fund flows for the SB Energy / Stargate Milam County project ｜ SoftBank controls and adds $500mn, NVIDIA places $1.5bn and guarantees 10% at IPO, with a $5-7bn primary raise
Semiconductor ETF SMH's AUM Reaches $69.97B, SOXX at $46.17B
AUM of semiconductor and software ETFs ｜ SMH at $69.97B and SOXX at $46.17B, far above software ETF IGV at $13.5B
US Leads Generative-AI Use at Work in 2026 at ~43%
Share of workers using generative AI for work by country ｜ US highest at ~43%, Italy lowest at ~26%
Meta on Track for Its Best Month Since July 2013, Up About 33%
Meta Platforms monthly stock move since 2013 ｜ Up ~32.7% this month, the strongest since July 2013
US Residential Natural Gas Seen Easing as Electricity Climbs to ~$54/MMBtu
US residential electricity vs natural gas prices (USD/MMBtu) ｜ Electricity to ~$54, natural gas near $14 and set to ease
Goldman Sees Oil and Refined-Product Prices Adding Only Modestly to Core PCE
Estimated impact of energy and refined-product prices on 2026 core PCE by component ｜ GS sees just 3-5bp added to monthly core PCE through year-end, with airfares hit most
Top 0.1% Gained $9.6M in Wealth per Household Since 2024, 8,000x the Bottom Half
Real net-worth gain per household by wealth group ｜ Top 0.1% +$9.57M, top 1% +$1.81M, bottom 50% just +$1,157
Business AI Token Spend: OpenAI Tops the Week at $13.7M, Anthropic at $13.1M
Weekly business token spend by AI model ｜ Week ending Sep 20, OpenAI at $13.7M just ahead of Anthropic at $13.1M
Euro-Area Sovereign Yields Near 4%, French Spread over Bunds Rising
10-year euro-area yields and spreads over Bunds ｜ Yields near 4%, France's spread up to ~100 bps
AI Semis Track the 1990s Internet Rally, but Tech P/E at 20.6 Is Far Below the 66.4 Dotcom Peak
AI semiconductors 2022-2026 vs the internet index 1995-2000, weekly ｜ The price path closely rhymes, yet S&P tech P/E is ~20.6 now versus the 66.4 dotcom peak
Days When Crude and the S&P 500 Move Together Fall to ~85, Fewest Since 2008
Days when crude and the S&P 500 move in the same direction, 200-day rolling total, 1986-2026 ｜ Recently down to ~85, the fewest since 2008, signaling weaker co-movement
US Crude Supply Shifts Away From OPEC: OPEC Share Down to 5%, Domestic Output 61%
US crude oil supply composition, 1975-2025 ｜ OPEC's share has fallen 84% from its peak to 5%, while US production is 61% and Canada 25%
Silver Relative to US M2 Money Supply Breaks Its Decades-Long Downtrend Line
Silver price divided by US M2 money supply, 1975-2026 ｜ The ratio has broken its post-1980 downtrend line to ~0.0025, retesting former resistance that now acts as support
Tariffs, AI Buildout and Energy Push US Core PCE Contribution to ~1.0pp in 2026
US contributions to annual core PCE inflation, 2025-2027 ｜ The three supply shocks peak at ~1.0pp in 2026, easing to ~0.25pp by end-2027
Every US State Ranks Above Every Foreign Economy in Household Consumption per Capita
Household consumption per capita vs population, 2024 PPP ｜ US states are 4.5% of people but 19.6% of consumption, each above every foreign economy
S&P 500 Technology Sector Hits a New All-Time High While Financials Break Into Extreme Oversold
S&P 500 sector prices against their overbought/oversold bands, past year ｜ Technology breaks above its overbought zone to a record while Financials fall into extreme oversold
UK Fossil-Fuel Use in Power Collapses to ~17 Mtoe as Transport Becomes the Largest Sector
UK fossil-fuel final energy consumption by sector (Mtoe), 2008-2024 ｜ Power-sector use falls from ~65 to ~17 Mtoe; transport is now the largest at ~50, home heating ~24
J.P. Morgan Sees HBM Supply Shortfall of About 16%-20% Through 2028
HBM bit supply/demand and glut ratio, 2023-2028E ｜ Deficit of -20% in 2026E, -19% in 2027E, -16% in 2028E, a persistent shortage
US 5Y and 10Y Treasury Yields Hit Highest Since 2007 at 4.998% and 5.111%
US 2Y, 5Y and 10Y Treasury yields, long-term ｜ 5Y at 4.998% and 10Y at 5.111%, highest since July 2007; 2Y at 4.899%, highest since June 2024
S&P 500 Is Up 93% Since ChatGPT, With Over Three-Quarters From 20 AI-Linked Stocks
Stock contribution to the S&P 500 vs price change since Nov 2022 ｜ Nvidia leads with the biggest contribution and SanDisk up nearly 3,000%, AI names dominate
JPM Sees Conventional DRAM Bit Demand Rising to ~71bn (8Gb-eq) by 2028 as HBM Scales
Conventional DRAM vs HBM bit demand, 2025-2028E (mn 8Gb-eq) ｜ Conventional DRAM from ~35bn to ~71bn by 2028E, HBM growing off a low base
Three AI Giants Worth $5.2T Combined, Exceeding 45 Years of Tech IPOs at $4.1T
Valuation of 3 AI-era giants vs 3,365 US tech IPOs (USD tn) ｜ OpenAI+Anthropic+SpaceX total $5.2T, above the $4.1T first-day value of all 1980-2025 tech IPOs
US Government Net Interest Spending Hits $1.23 Trillion, 10.6% of Government Outlays
Government net interest spending and its share of government spending by country, 2025 ｜ The US tops absolute spending at $1.23T; as a share, Mexico leads at 10.9% and the US at 10.6%
Share of S&P 500 Stocks Above Their 200-Day Average Falls to 48.9%, Lowest Since April
Percent of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average, past 3 months ｜ Now 48.9%, down from over 73% in August, with more than half below the line
NYSE McClellan Summation Index Falls to -468 With RSI at 2.75
NYSE McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) ｜ Down to -468 at a new low, with RSI at just 2.75
Bond Behind Meta's Hyperion Data Center (6.581% 2049) Falls to 94.76, a Record Low
Price of the Meta Hyperion-linked bond, 6.581% due 2049 ｜ Down to 94.76, an all-time low
Government Bond Yields Climb Together Across Nine Major Economies
Sovereign yields by tenor for nine economies, 2006-2026 (%) ｜ US, Germany, Japan, UK, Italy, France and others all higher into Sep 2026
Goldman Sees Temporary Core PCE Drivers Peaking, With Tariff and Energy Effects Fading Into 2027
Core PCE inflation and temporary-factor contributions, 2025-2027E (%, ppt) ｜ Tariff, energy/Iran and software effects peak and fade as GS sees core PCE easing faster
OECD 15-Year-Olds' PISA Scores Fall to 25-Year Lows Across All Three Subjects in 2025
OECD-23 average PISA scores for 15-year-olds in science, reading and mathematics, 2000-2025 ｜ In 2025 math falls to 466, reading 469 and science 486, all record lows
SPX Gamma Volatility Throttle Rises to +8.34 as 10-Day Realized Volatility Sits at 12.3
SPX gamma volatility throttle vs 10-day realized volatility, Sept 22, 2026 ｜ Latest throttle at +8.34 with realized vol of 12.31, on the suppression curve that dampens index moves
Latin America and Europe Top Destinations for US Diesel Exports, Brazil Leads at 139K b/d
Top ten destinations for US diesel/gasoil exports, September (barrels/day) ｜ Brazil at 139K b/d and Mexico at 121K lead, with Latin America and Europe dominating the list
Semiconductors vs S&P 500 100-Day Relative Return Spread Falls Below Its 20-Year Average
SMH-SPY 100-day trailing relative return spread ｜ Down from a +3 SD extreme in May to below its 20-year average
US Net Domestic Migration by State, 2012-2023: Idaho +17%, Alaska -15%
Net population change by state as % of population, top and bottom 10, 2012-2023 ｜ Idaho +17%, South Carolina +15% and Nevada +13% lead; Alaska -15% and New York -13% lose most
US Timely Underlying Growth Rises to 3.0%, Above ~2% Potential
Augur US timely underlying growth (M/M annualized), 2022-2026 ｜ Coincident growth rises to 3.0%, above potential growth of ~2%, signaling above-trend momentum
Open Interest in March 2027 SOFR Calls Surges to About 470k
Open interest in March 2027 SOFR calls ｜ Jumps to ~470k over the past week, signaling fresh hedging
AI Maturity Varies Across Drug Discovery; Preclinical Stages Lag on Tech and Data Readiness
Technology and data readiness of AI use cases across the drug-discovery value chain (high/medium/low) ｜ Target and hit-identification stages score higher, while preclinical toxicity and PK prediction lag
Sulfur Gas Futures More Than Double Since Sept 2025, Far Outpacing Brent Crude
Sulfur gas futures vs Brent (indexed to 100) ｜ Since Sept 2025 the former rose to ~225 vs Brent's ~150, a widening refined premium
US Composite PMI Output Jumps to Around 58.5, a Multi-Year High
S&P Global US Composite PMI Output and GDP growth, 2013-2026 ｜ PMI output rises to about 58.5, back to its highest since 2021, signaling faster expansion
Open Interest in March SOFR Options Surges, With Calls ~60% Above Puts
March 2027 SOFR options open interest and call/put skew ｜ Call OI ~2.7M, about 60% above puts, hedging a shallower Fed path
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 5.04%, First Time Since 2007
US 10-year Treasury yield, past year (%) ｜ Now 5.041%, up ~0.89pp over the year, breaking above 5%
Fed Communication Hawkishness Score: 2024-Present Tracks the 2020-2023 Cycle
Fed hawkish/restrictive communication score, 2020-2023 vs 2024-present ｜ The two cycles closely rhyme, with the score climbing off a ~-15 trough along a similar path
Q3 Earnings-Growth Estimate Holds Near 24% Without the Usual Late-Quarter Drift Lower
Quarterly earnings-growth estimates by weeks into quarter-end (weekly data) ｜ Q3 holding near 24%, unlike the usual decline as the quarter closes
South Korea's First-20-Day Exports Surge 78% YoY in September, a Record
South Korea total exports, first 20 days of each month, YoY ｜ ~+78% in September, the strongest on record and a fifth straight month above 50%
US 2-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 4.79%, Highest Since 2024
US 2-year Treasury yield, weekly ｜ Breaks above 4.79%, the highest since 2024
Dutch High-Tech Exports Reach ~11.3% of Domestic Gross Exports in 2022, Above the EU Median
High-tech share of domestic gross exports, Netherlands vs EU, 1995-2022 ｜ The Netherlands rises from ~6.5% in 1995 to ~11.3% in 2022, staying above the EU median of ~9%
USD/JPY Rises to About 157.7 as the Yen Keeps Sliding After the BoJ Hike
USD/JPY, 4-hour ｜ Up from about 153 to roughly 157.7, with the yen weaker even after the BoJ rate hike
Financials Lag ~6% as the S&P 500 Nears a Record, a Signal That Has Fired 26 Times
S&P 500 with financials-lagging warning dates since 1929 ｜ After 26 signals the 12-month return averaged +4.5% with a 62% hit rate
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.11%, Breaking Above Its 12-Month Range
US 10Y Treasury yield, last 12 months with moving averages ｜ Now 5.11%, above its 50- and 200-DMA at a range high
Brazilian Real, Brent and the Dollar in 2026 vs Their 2022 Election-Year Paths
Real, Brent and USD indexed to 100, 2022 vs 2026 ｜ Four panels: 2026 shows a firmer real and higher Brent, with diverging dollar paths
US Treasury Yields Rise Across Maturities; 30Y ~5.4%, 10Y ~5.1%
US Treasury yields (2/5/10/30-year), Aug-Sep 2026 ｜ 30Y ~5.4%, 10Y ~5.1%, 5Y ~4.85% and 2Y ~4.9%, all rising since early August
EU Clean-Tech Employment Has Doubled in a Decade to 950k Jobs in 2023
EU clean-tech employment by technology (thousands) ｜ Up from ~480k in 2010 to 950k in 2023, a decade doubling
US Cannabis ETF ($MSOS) Jumps 7.9% in a Day to $5.33
US cannabis ETF ($MSOS) daily price ｜ Up 7.9% on the day to $5.33
Euro-Area 10-Year Sovereign Spreads Over Bunds Sit Near Multi-Year Lows in September 2026
10-year sovereign spreads over Bunds, bps ｜ France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal all well off their 2020 and 2022 peaks
Global Copper Demand Seen Rising to 53Mt by 2050, Up 89% From 2025
Global copper demand, 2025 vs 2035E vs 2050E (Mt) ｜ From 28Mt in 2025 to 44Mt (+57%) by 2035 and 53Mt (+89%) by 2050
China's Exports to the US Jump 34% YoY in August, a Fifth Straight Monthly Gain
Chinese exports to the US, % change in dollar value ｜ ~+34% y/y in August, double July's pace and a fifth straight monthly gain
Persian Gulf-to-Asia Supertanker Rates Spike Past $1.1 Million a Day, Up Over 1,000% in a Year
VLCC day rates, Persian Gulf to China and Japan ｜ ~$1.1M/day, up more than 1,000% over the past year
Chinese Brands' European Auto Share Up 478bps YoY as VW-Led Mass Brands Shed 414bps
Change in Europe-5 auto market share, bps, R3M yoy as of Aug 2026 ｜ Chinese domestic brands +478bp (total China-owned +515bp) vs VW mass -139bp
Euro Investment-Grade Credit Drawdown From Its Peak Narrows to -2.8%
Euro IG and HY total-return drawdown from all-time highs, % ｜ IG now about -2.8%, recovering from -18% in 2022, while HY is nearly flat
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5.04%, a 19-Year High
US 10-year Treasury yield, weekly ｜ Breaks above 5.04%, the highest in 19 years
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Eases to -0.91, Below-Average Stress
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, 2022-2026 ｜ -0.91 in the week to Sep 18 vs -0.85 prior; 0 is normal and below 0 signals below-average stress
Middle Eastern Tanker Rates Spike to About $970k a Day, a Multi-Year High
Middle Eastern Gulf tanker rates to China, India and Japan ｜ Routes spike to ~$0.87M-$0.97M/day, the highest in over a decade
DeepSeek V4 Inference Economics: B300 Leads MI355X and B200 on Tokens per $1 TCO
DeepSeek V4 total tokens per $1 TCO vs P90 interactivity, 3-year rent ｜ B300 FP4 frontier tops MI355X and B200, over 50M tokens per $ at low interactivity