WTI Crude Daily Sentiment Index Climbs to 91% Bulls as Oil Rebounds
WTI crude price and Daily Sentiment Index (since 2021) ｜ DSI latest at 91% bulls, rising alongside oil's rebound off the lows
2026-09 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 32.
Over 70% of Productivity Mentions on Earnings Calls Point to Gains, Especially for AI
Share of earnings-call sentences citing a decrease, no change, or increase in productivity ｜ "Increase" tops 70% and rises to ~80% by 2025, with AI-related mentions the most upbeat
Share of Industry Groups Above Their 10-Week Average Drops to 15% While the S&P 500 Sits Near 7,900
Percent of industry groups above their 10-week average vs the S&P 500 (since 2018) ｜ Breadth fell from 81% to 15% even as the S&P 500 holds near 7,900
UBS: Memory to Capture 64% of Hyperscaler Capex by 2027, Up From 14% in 2025
Top-12 hyperscaler capex and memory spend (US$ billions) ｜ Memory spend rises from $71B (14% of capex) in 2025 to an estimated $933B (64%) in 2027
China's Gold Imports Top 1,000 Tonnes in 2026, the Most Since at Least 2017
China gold imports (January-August, tonnes), 2020-2026 ｜ 1,141 tonnes through August 2026, the highest since at least 2017
S&P 500 Excess Return After Fed Tightening Diverges Sharply Between Soft-Landing and Recession Paths
S&P 500 excess return, months from start of Fed tightening (t=0) ｜ About 40 months out, the soft-landing mean is up roughly 50% while the recession mean sits near zero to negative
Solana Weekly Spot DEX Trades Top 200 Million, Surpassing the NYSE for the First Time
Solana spot DEX trades vs TradFi exchanges, weekly trade counts ｜ Solana about 208M edged past the NYSE's about 190M, a first on record
Extra-EU Energy Imports in Q2 2026: US Supplies 63.2% of LNG, Norway 51.2% of Pipeline Gas
Extra-EU energy imports by partner, Q2 2026 (% of trade value) ｜ US at 18.8% of petroleum oils and 63.2% of LNG, while Norway supplies 51.2% of pipeline gas
S&P 500 Excess Return After Fed Hikes: Soft vs Hard Landings Diverge Sharply
S&P 500 excess return around Fed tightening cycles since the 1960s ｜ The soft-landing mean climbs ~80% later on while the hard-landing mean stalls near zero
California Ranks Dead Last (51st) Among US States for Restaurant Tipping, Toast Data Shows
US states ranked by restaurant tipping generosity (Toast; numbers are ranks) ｜ California ranks 51st, the lowest, with red states generally near the top
US Deficit Tops 5% of GDP, Rare Outside War or Recession, as Mandatory Spending Hits 61% of Outlays
US government deficit as a share of GDP and the FY2026 federal outlay mix ｜ The deficit exceeds 5% of GDP, rare outside wars and recessions, while mandatory spending is 61% of outlays and net interest 14%
Solar Overtook Wind in Global Power Generation in 2025, Both Near 2,700 TWh
World electricity generation by renewable source (TWh), 2000-2025 ｜ Solar passed wind in 2025 at ~2,700 TWh each, after wind overtook bioenergy around 2010
Currency Performance vs the US Dollar Diverges in 2026, With Brazil's Real Relatively Firm Among EM
Currency moves vs USD, 2022 vs Feb-Sep 2026 (%) ｜ Most EM currencies sit weaker (left) in 2026 while Brazil's real is roughly flat, and Colombia and bitcoin lead gains
Oil vs. US 10-Year Yield 3-Month Rolling Correlation Rises to 65%, a 35-Year High
Oil vs. US 10Y yield, 3-month rolling correlation (since 1985) ｜ Latest about +65%, the highest since 1990
Comex Copper Up 20% in 2026 at $6.78/lb, Near September's Record
Comex most-active copper price in 2026 ($/lb) ｜ Now $6.78 and up about 20% YTD, just off the record settle of $6.8885 on September 9
Six Historical Cases of New Technologies Rapidly Displacing the Old
Six new-vs-old technology transition curves (messages, computers, electronics, lighting, transport, heat) ｜ Cars, PCs, electricity and gas each rapidly displaced telegrams, mainframes, horses and coal once they broke through
California Grid Gas Generation Falls 62% in Two Years as Solar and Batteries Take Over
California grid intraday generation mix, H1 2024 vs H1 2026 (GW) ｜ Gas generation down 62% from H1 2024 to H1 2026, with batteries and imports filling the evening ramp
US Distillate Fuel Oil Exports to Europe and the UK Jump in H1 2026, With the Netherlands Rising From 14M to 37M Barrels
Top 10 destinations for US distillate fuel oil exports, H1 2025 vs H1 2026 (million barrels/month) ｜ Netherlands rose from 14M to 37M and the UK from 11M to 17M barrels a month
Chip Stocks Gain Ground After the July Rout, With the SOX and Korea's KOSPI Both Rebounding
Korea's KOSPI and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (Sep 2025-Sep 2026) ｜ Both rebounded after the July pullback, with the KOSPI near 11,500 and the SOX around 7,000
YouTube Reaches 14.2% of US TV Viewing While Netflix Slips to 7.8%
US TV viewership share, Nielsen Gauge (Jul-2025 to Jul-2026) ｜ July 2026: YouTube about 14.2% and rising, Netflix down to about 7.8%
Share of Members Above Their 50-Day Average Falls to 31-38% Across Major Indexes
Percentage of index members trading above their 50-day moving average, 2020-2026 ｜ S&P 500 at 31%, Nasdaq 38%, Russell 2000 33%
El Niño Peak Lands in Late 2026, Just as South American Soy, South African Maize and Indian Wheat Enter Critical Growth Windows
Forecast El Niño peak vs southern-hemisphere crop calendars ｜ Peak in Nov-Dec 2026, with soy, maize and wheat critical windows running Dec-Feb
Consumer Staples ETF XLP Falls to All-Time Lows Relative to the S&P 500
Consumer staples ETF XLP price and its relative strength vs the S&P 500 ｜ XLP's ratio to the S&P 500 keeps making new lows, the weakest defensive relative performance on record
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Up Over 7% in Four Days, Far Outpacing the Equal-Weight S&P
Major equity indices rebased to Sep 17, 2026 ｜ The SOX leads at +7.4% and the Mag 7 at +2.9%, versus +1.7% cap-weighted and just +0.6% equal-weight, a size-led rally
US Natural Gas Output Nears 37 Trillion Cubic Feet, World's Largest Since 2009
Annual natural gas production by country (cubic feet), 1995-2024 ｜ The US leads at ~37T cubic feet, having overtaken Russia (~22T) in 2009
What Firms Plan to Do With Tariff Refunds: 75.2% Keep the Cash, 52.5% Invest, Just 14.8% Cut Prices
How firms plan to use tariff refunds, Atlanta Fed survey (multiple responses) ｜ 75.2% keep it as cash and 52.5% invest in R&D or capex, while only 17.2% offer rebates and 14.8% lower prices
Persian Gulf-to-Asia Supertanker Rates Spike to a Record ~$1.1 Million a Day, Up Over 1,000% in a Year
Cost of hiring an oil supertanker, Persian Gulf to China/Japan (per day), 2009-2026 ｜ Recently spiked to about $1.1 million a day, a record, up more than 1,000% over the past year
Goldman's 10-Year S&P 500 Return Ranges From 14% in an AI Boom to About 4.5% in Stagflation
Goldman 10-year annualized return scenarios by structural regime ｜ S&P 500 at 14% in "Goldilocks + AI boom" vs ~4.5% in stagflation
Market Pricing Implies One of the Shallowest Tightening Cycles in History
Cumulative market-implied tightening across cycles (%) ｜ The 2026 market-priced path stays under 2%, far below prior cycles like 1980 and 2022
WTI Crude Technicals: Iran Conflict Pushed Oil to $119.5, Now Around $100
WTI crude weekly price and supply-stress gauges (since 1996, Fidelity) ｜ Iran conflict lifted WTI to about $119.5, now back near $100 amid renewed supply stress
Oil Price Paths After Conflict: WTI Is $25 Higher 200 Days After the Iran Strike, Versus $7 Lower After Russia's Invasion
WTI change since the start of hostilities, Iran 2026 vs Russia-Ukraine 2022 (USD per barrel) ｜ About 200 days out, oil is about $25 higher after the Iran strike but was about $7 lower after Russia's invasion
China's Crude Imports Fall 45% to 5.74mb/d After the War, With Middle East Volumes More Than Halved
China crude oil imports by origin, before vs after the war (thousand barrels/day) ｜ Total fell from 10.36mb/d to 5.74mb/d (-45%), with the Middle East down from 4,470 to 1,803 kb/d
Eurozone-Russia Investment Positions Have Roughly Halved Since 2015
Eurozone and Russia two-way investment positions (% of GDP), 2015-2026 ｜ EU investment in Russia fell from 4.7% to ~1.5%, Russia's in the EU from 4.2% to ~2.5%
Only 31% of S&P 500 Members Are Above Their 50-Day Average
Share of S&P 500 members above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, by sector ｜ Just 31% of the index is above its 50-DMA and 53% above its 200-DMA, with energy the broadest
California's Grid Peaked at 46.6 GW on Aug 26, With Gas Supplying 39% and Batteries Swinging +12.2 GW
CAISO supply mix at the Aug 26 peak (five-minute data) ｜ Peak load 46.6 GW, natural gas 18.2 GW (39%, largest), batteries +12.2 GW from the solar peak
In the 2024 Yen Carry Unwind, Bitcoin and Japanese Equities Fell About 15% While the Yen Rose
Asset performance during the 2024 yen carry unwind (%, Jul 31-Aug 5) ｜ Bitcoin and Japan equities down ~15%, the yen up ~9%
Florida Home Prices Fall From Their 2022 Peaks, With Condos Weaker Than Single-Family
Florida county home-price change since local 2022 peak (condo vs single-family) ｜ Condos down more broadly, Charlotte County condos -35.4%, Miami-Dade single-family +12.2%
Publicly Traded Firms Are Just 2% of US Oil & Gas Producers but Pump 68% of Output
US Lower-48 oil & gas producers vs production share (2025) ｜ Public companies are 2% of producers but 68% of output; private firms are 98% of producers but 32% of output
Cross-Border Yen-Denominated Borrowing Climbs to ¥360tn, Up 67% Since End-2021
Total cross-border yen-denominated borrowing (yen tn, since 1995) ｜ About ¥360tn as of March 2026, a 67% rise from December 2021 (about $2.3tn)
Semiconductors Trade at a 13% Forward-P/E Discount to the S&P 500, Cheapest in Over Four Years
Semis forward P/E ÷ S&P 500 forward P/E, 2010-2026 ｜ Ratio at 0.87, a 13% discount vs the -12% long-run average
US Home Size Grew From 1,800 to 5,100 sq ft While Lot Sizes Stayed Flat
Ramapo, NY homes vs lot size by build era (sq ft) ｜ Houses grew from 1,800 (pre-1950) to 5,100 (2010-25) as lots held near 28,000-37,000
US-to-Asia Tanker Costs Hit a Record ~25% of WTI Futures
US-to-Asia tanker costs as a share of WTI futures, 2022-2026 ｜ Recently spiked to ~25%, a record high, versus a typical ~4%
China's Gold Imports Top 1,000 Tonnes in 2026, the Most Since at Least 2017
China gold imports (January-August, tonnes), 2020-2026 ｜ About 1,141 tonnes through August 2026, the highest since at least 2017
US Nonfarm Labor Share of Income Falls to ~53%, Down 7.5pp Since the 1990s
US nonfarm business labor share of income, 1950-2026 ｜ Down to about 53%, a record low, roughly 7.5pp below its 1990s level
Odds of the Strait Reopening Collapse to Single Digits as S&P Breadth Slips to 53%
S&P members above their 200-day average vs Strait-reopening odds, 2026 ｜ Reopening odds fell from 70-80% in spring to single digits, breadth now around 53%
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF Sees Record Weekly Outflow of About $1 Billion
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF weekly fund flow (USD millions) ｜ Latest week about $1 billion of net outflows, the largest on record since 2000
Gold and the 10-Year Treasury Yield Move in Tandem: Gold at $4,396, Yield at 4.96%
Gold price vs 10-year US Treasury yield (inverted, RHS), 2026 ｜ Gold at $4,396/oz and the 10-year yield at 4.96%, moving together
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT Draws $381M in Daily Net Inflows
$IBIT daily net flows, Aug-Sep 2026 ｜ The latest day's $381M inflow is the largest in two weeks after a run of outflows
US M2 Money Supply Grows 5.7% Year-Over-Year, the Biggest Increase Since June 2022
US M2 money supply, YoY growth, 1960-2026 ｜ Now 5.7%, the biggest year-over-year rise since June 2022
S&P 500 Back to Overbought on Price, Yet 43% of Members Are Oversold and Just 11% Overbought
S&P 500 50-day MA spread and overbought/oversold members ｜ Index price overbought while 43% of members are oversold vs only 11% overbought
The US-to-Latin-America Equity Ratio Rises to 2.41, With US Stocks Historically Expensive
US stocks (MSCI USA) vs Latin American stocks (MSCI LatAm) and their ratio, 1990-2026 ｜ Ratio at 2.41 near record highs, marking US stocks historically expensive
Persian Gulf-to-China Supertanker Rates Spike to About $1 Million a Day, a Record High
Supertanker rates, Persian Gulf to China/Japan (USD per day) ｜ Gulf-China near $1 million/day, up more than 1,000% over the past year and a record
US Generative-AI Adoption Reaches Nearly 58% Overall, 43% for Work
US generative-AI adoption rate (overall / outside work / for work), Q3 2024-Q1 2026 ｜ Overall near 58%, outside-work ~51%, for-work up to ~43%
Nasdaq Closes at a Record With a 2%+ Daily Gain for the 37th Time in History
Nasdaq (log scale) new highs paired with a 2%+ daily gain, 1971-2026 ｜ The latest is the 37th such occurrence on record
Consensus Sees Hyperscaler Operating Cash Flow Tripling From $600B in 2025 to $2T by 2030
Hyperscalers' cash flows and capex, 2021-2030 ｜ Operating cash flow is expected to climb from $600bn in 2025 to $2trn by 2030, while free cash flow lags
Profits Per Worker Fall Sharply After a Million-Dollar-Earning Owner Dies or Retires
Event study of profits per worker around owner death/retirement (US$ thousands) ｜ Profits fall about $24k per worker after death and about $40k after retirement, both statistically significant
Goldman Sees Commodity Passthrough Adding up to 0.5pp to YoY Core PCE, Peaking in 2026Q4
Estimated impact of commodity prices on YoY core PCE inflation, 2020-2027 ｜ Peak impact of ~0.5pp in 2026Q4, smaller than the 2022 surge, with a ~3-5bp monthly boost through year-end
US Net Interest Expense Hits About 3.3% of GDP, a Multi-Decade High, With the 10-Year Yield at Just 4.5%
US net interest expense as a share of GDP vs 10-year yield (since 1986) ｜ Net interest near 3.3% of GDP, the highest shown, while the 10Y sits at about 4.5% (vs about 7% at the 1991 peak)
How GDP Per Capita Would Change If Each European Capital Were Removed
Change in GDP per capita after removing the capital city (European countries over 10m, ex-Russia/Ukraine) ｜ Czechia (Prague) -22.5% the largest, Germany (Berlin) just -0.4%
Three AI Giants' Valuations Total $5.2T, Topping 45 Years of US Tech IPOs at $4.1T
Valuation of three AI-era giants vs. combined first-day value of all 3,365 US tech IPOs since 1980 ｜ OpenAI+Anthropic+SpaceX total $5.2T, above the 3,365-company $4.1T
Goldman's 10-Year Scenarios: S&P 500 at 14% Annually in a Goldilocks+AI Boom, 4% in Stagflation
GS 10-year return forecasts by structural regime ｜ S&P 500 ~14% a year in a Goldilocks+AI boom versus ~4% under stagflation
Saudi Oil's Export Routes Disrupted; Cape Route Takes 29 Days vs 10 via Hormuz
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea and Hormuz oil export routes ｜ Cape of Good Hope route is 29+ days vs 10 days via Hormuz
Net Migration of Foreigners Into Germany Falls to Near Zero by June 2026
Net migration of foreigners into Germany, in thousands ｜ Down to near zero in June 2026, far below the ~480k peak of March 2022
Germany's Real GDP Sits 8.5% Below Its Pre-COVID Trend, a Widening Gap
Germany real GDP vs pre-COVID and pre-GFC trends (2007=100) ｜ Now ~8.5% below the pre-COVID trend, wider than 2014's 6.6%
Canada and Mexico Are the Top Export Partner for 37 of 50 US States
Each US state's top export partner and share (Visual Capitalist) ｜ Canada and Mexico lead 37 states, North Dakota sends 81% to Canada
US Gas-Fired Additions Near 40GW a Year in 2028-2030, Over 100GW in Three Years
Halcyon-tracked gas-fired generation capacity additions, 2026-2034 ｜ 39.4GW in 2028, 38.6GW in 2029 and 38.9GW in 2030, sharply above last year's estimates
Brent Crude Ends the Week Near $103 as the Futures Curve Stays in Backwardation
Intraweek Brent prices and the Brent futures curve ｜ Closed at $103.06, down $1.55, with the curve in steep prompt backwardation
Hyperscaler ROIIC Seen Bottoming at 23% in Q4 2027 Before Rising to ~35% by 2030
Large hyperscalers' trailing 3-year ROIIC vs WACC ｜ ROIIC troughs at ~23% in Q4 2027 then climbs to ~35% by 2030, well above ~8% WACC
Goldman Sees CTA US Equity Positioning Rebound to 36.9, Above Average
CTA positioning in US equities and scenario flows ｜ Now 36.9 vs 32.4 average, base case buys ~$8.5bn of SPX
GPT-6 Astra Tops OpenRouter's Weekly Token-Spend Leaderboard at $5.3M
Weekly token spend by model on OpenRouter ｜ GPT-6 Astra leads at $5.3M (18.9% of total), ahead of Claude Opus 5 at $4.8M
Silver Set for a 6th Straight Annual Deficit in 2026, After a Record -254 Moz Gap in 2022
Silver annual market balance, million ounces ｜ 2026F marks a sixth straight deficit, following the record -254 Moz shortfall in 2022
Systematic Strategies' US Equity Positioning Rises to the 88th Percentile, Discretionary at 19th
Discretionary versus systematic equity positioning (z-scores) ｜ Systematic at the 88th percentile while discretionary sits at just the 19th, a wide divide
AI Tokens per Watt Seen Reaching 25.5M and per Chip 128M by 2028
AI tokens per watt and per chip, 2025-2028 ｜ Tokens/watt rise from 4.8M to 25.5M, tokens/chip from 11M to 128M
Hedge Funds Bought $1.7 Trillion of Treasuries in 2022-2025, the Second-Largest Buyer
Change in Treasury holdings by sector, 2022 to 2025 ｜ Hedge funds added $1.7T, second only to non-bank financials, while the Fed shed about $1.9T
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Falls to -2 in September as Employment Rebounds to +7
Richmond Fed manufacturing composite and employment indexes ｜ September composite at -2 (from +4) while the employment gauge rises to +7
Speculative Yen Positioning Turns Positive as Shorts Cover
CFTC non-commercial yen position (thousands of contracts) ｜ The net has swung back to positive with longs near 180k, ending a long stretch of bearish yen bets
US Data-Center Power Gap Seen at ~33GW in 2026-28, About 34% of Need
US data-center power supply-demand waterfall, 2026-28 (GW) ｜ 97GW needed, a ~33GW gap remains after all supply sources
US Commercial Power Use Is Up Nearly 20% Since 2020, Outpacing Homes and Industry
US electricity consumption by sector, rebased 2020 = 100 ｜ Commercial at 119.8 leads, versus 110.4 for industrial and just 104.2 for residential
US T-Bills Rise to 22.8% of Marketable Treasury Debt
Bills as a share of marketable US Treasury debt ｜ Now 22.8%, up from a ~10% trough in 2015
CPO Co-Packaged Optics Competition Intensifies Across the Nvidia Supply Chain
CPO/NPO optics supplier landscape and packaging (Bloomberg Intelligence) ｜ Lumentum leads for Nvidia scale-out, startups have raised over $80M
CTA US Equity Positioning Rebounds to $36.9bn; S&P Baseline Flow ~+$8.6bn for the Week
CTA positioning in US equities and estimated flows by market ｜ US positioning last at $36.9bn, with S&P 500 E-mini baseline weekly flow about +$8.6bn
Polymarket Puts Democrats' Odds of Taking the House at 93%, the Senate at 64%
Polymarket odds for control of Congress after the 2026 midterms ｜ Democrats 93% to take the House and 64% the Senate
China-to-US Container Rates Rebound to About $10K per FEU, Near Multi-Year Highs
Shanghai-to-LA and Shanghai-to-NY spot container rates ｜ Shanghai-to-NY near $10K/FEU, a multi-year high but below the 2021 peak of ~$16K
CTA Positioning in US Equities Eases to About $37bn, Just Above Its Long-Run Average
CTA positioning in US equities ($bn) since 2014 ｜ Last near $37bn, a touch above the $32bn average and well below the $74bn high
China's Jan-Aug Gold Imports Hit Record 1,141 Tonnes
China gold imports, January-August each year (tonnes) ｜ 2026 at 1,141 tonnes, a record and above all of last year
Speculators Cut Bullish Dollar Bets to $5 Billion, the Lowest Since March
Aggregate USD stance of non-commercial traders ｜ Now about +$5B, a 7th straight weekly drop from the ~+$50B mid-July peak
US Local Data-Center Moratoriums Accelerate, Cumulative Total Tops 400
US local data-center moratorium adoptions, monthly and cumulative ｜ Monthly passages topped 60, cumulative now above 400
Market-Implied 2026 Fed Tightening Stays Under 2%, Among the Shallowest Cycles on Record
Market-implied cumulative tightening across Fed cycles ｜ 2026 pricing stays under 2%, far below 1977, 1980 and 2022
Export-Control Targeting Highest in Info & Communications at ~0.13
High-tech export-control targeting rate by sector ｜ Info & Communications ~0.13 leads, nuclear technology ~0.04 lowest
Singapore's Chip Exports to Mexico Are 96.5% Processors and Controllers
Singapore-to-Mexico IC and IC-parts export value, August ｜ Processors and controllers about 96.5%, memory about 1.0% and other ICs about 2.5%
S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing 'AI' Reach 331, a 10-Year High
Number of S&P 500 earnings calls citing 'AI' over ten years ｜ Latest quarter at 331, or 67% of companies, the highest on record
Diesel Prices Surge ~60% Y/Y, Leading US CPI and Signaling Higher Inflation
US diesel price y/y vs CPI y/y ｜ Diesel up ~60% and historically leads CPI
S&P 500 De-Rates 15% Over the Past Year as Price Lags Earnings
S&P 500 price, blended forward EPS and forward P/E, indexed since Sept 18, 2025 ｜ Forward EPS up over 30% while the forward P/E fell about 20%
US Households' Large-Purchase Shares: Vacations Lead at ~30%, House/Apartment Lowest at ~3%
Share of US households making a large purchase over the past four months, by category, 2015-2026 ｜ Vacations now ~30%, the highest, while house/apartment stays lowest at ~3%
S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Correlation Falls to About -45%, Lowest This Century
200-day correlation of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury ｜ Recently near -45%, the lowest since 2000, with stocks and bonds moving apart
Apple Hits a Record High, Lifting Its Market Cap Back Above $5 Trillion
Apple (AAPL), daily over the past year ｜ Latest ~$341, up 0.58%, pushing its market cap above $5 trillion
Dow Transports Slip to 19,888, Extending the Decline From Their July Peak
Dow Jones Transportation Average, daily with moving averages ｜ Latest 19,887.79, down 0.42%, off the ~22,800 July high
Nasdaq Composite Hits a Record Intraday High at 27,194
Nasdaq Composite Index, past year daily ｜ Latest 27,194.76 sets a fresh high, well above the March low near 20,795
Mag 7 Interest Coverage at 31.9x, Dwarfing Small Caps at 1.4x
Median interest coverage (EBIT/interest) by group ｜ Mag 7 31.9x vs S&P 493 6.6x and small cap 1.4x
Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis: Equity-Bond Turns Negative, Equity-Gold Rises
One-month correlations of equities with rates, bonds, oil, gold and FX ｜ SPX versus 10Y yield has turned deeply negative while SPX versus gold has climbed