Key points
Estimated impact of commodity prices on YoY core PCE inflation, 2020-2027 ｜ Peak impact of ~0.5pp in 2026Q4, smaller than the 2022 surge, with a ~3-5bp monthly boost through year-end
Image source: @MikeZaccardi
2026-09-23
Goldman Sees Commodity Passthrough Adding up to 0.5pp to YoY Core PCE, Peaking in 2026Q4