Euro-Area Sovereign Spreads Over Bunds Compress to Around 100bp as Periphery Risk Premia Ease
Euro-area 10-year sovereign yields and spreads over Bunds ｜ Yields back to 3-4.5% in 2026 with spreads compressed to around 100bp or less
2026-09 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-09, page 31.
European Public Debt/GDP: Greece Falls From 213% in 2021 to 143%, France Rises to 117%
Public debt as % of GDP, five European economies, 2015-2025 ｜ Greece down from a 2021 peak of 213% to 143%, while France climbs to a regional-high 117%
Energy Leads S&P 500 Sectors +43% YTD, Ahead of Info Tech at +24%
S&P 500 sector returns, year-to-date vs month-to-date ｜ Energy +43% and Info Tech +24% lead YTD; most sectors negative MTD, Materials -5% worst
Russell 2000 Unprofitable Companies Up ~15% YTD, Trailing Profitable Peers by ~500bps
Cumulative YTD return of Russell 2000 non-profitable companies (%) ｜ Up ~15%, with profitable names now outperforming by about 500 bps
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Cuts KV Cache per Token to 890 Bytes, 437x Smaller Than V1
DeepSeek KV cache per token by generation (bytes) ｜ Down from 389,120 in V1 to 890 in V4.1, a 437x efficiency gain
US M&A Deal Count Falls 15% in August to 1,116; Total Value Down 2%
US M&A deal volume (bars) and aggregate value (line), monthly ｜ August volume 1,116, down 15% m/m, with total spending off 2%
LME Copper Rallies Back Toward Its All-Time High
LME copper price, $/ton (London Metal Exchange) ｜ Copper climbed back above ~$14,000/ton, approaching its earlier record high
Critical Minerals: 26% of a Battery Cell's Price, Just 3% of an EV — IEA
Share of critical minerals in final product prices ｜ 26% of a battery cell and 18% of a pack, but only 3% of an EV; rare-earth magnets 40%
Consumer Staples Relative to the S&P 500 Falls to All-Time Lows in 2026
Staples vs S&P 500, cap-weighted (XLP/SPX) and equal-weighted (RSPS/RSP) ｜ Both ratios hit all-time lows in 2026 after a steady decline since 2020
US Large-Cap Growth Leads +0.7% on Sept 18 While Small Caps Fall Across the Board
Daily performance of major US equity indexes (Sept 18) ｜ Russell 1000 Growth +0.7% led, Russell 2000 styles fell about -0.5%
LED Adoption Curbs Building Lighting Power Use, Its Electricity Share Down From 9% to 6%, 2014-2024
Lighting's share of building electricity and LED market share ｜ Lighting's share of final electricity fell from 9% to 6% as LED share jumped
Share of S&P 500 Members Above Their 200-Day Average Falls to 52.6%
Percentage of S&P 500 members trading above the 200-day moving average ｜ Now 52.6%, down sharply from over 75% in August
Top 20 Foreign Holders of US Debt: Japan Leads at $1.12tn, China Down to $633bn
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries by country, June 2026 ｜ Japan $1.12tn, UK $940bn, China $633bn, totaling $9.29tn
Oktoberfest One-Litre Beer Price More Than Triples From 1990 to 2026
Oktoberfest one-litre beer price over time, in euros ｜ About €3.55 in 1990, rising to roughly €15 in 2026
Energy Leads S&P 500 Breadth With 15% of Stocks at 52-Week Highs
Share of S&P 500 stocks at 4-week and 52-week highs, by sector ｜ Energy tops both at 15%, while the full index sits at 4% and 1%
Retail Trading Activity Slips to 0.95x the Monthly Average in September
Monthly retail trading activity relative to its monthly average ｜ September 2026 at 0.95x, below the longer-run average
US Stocks in 2026: Russell 1000 Value Leads at +20% While Most Indexes Fall in September
Year-to-date vs month-to-date performance of major US indexes ｜ Russell 1000 Value +20% YTD led, most indexes down month-to-date
Global Refinery Runs Fall to 81.4 mb/d After the Wars, Over 20 mb/d Idle
Global refining capacity vs actual runs ｜ 103.3 mb/d capacity but only 81.4 processed, with Russia and the Gulf the biggest gaps
Core PCE-CPI Gap Rises to +0.88 in July 2026, Well Above Its -0.43 Average
Core PCE deflator minus core CPI, year-over-year, since 1986 ｜ July 2026 at +0.88, far above the long-run average of -0.43
S&P 500 Tech Sector Weight Climbs to 38.4%, Above the 2000 Dot-Com Peak
S&P 500 technology sector weighting, 1990-2026 ｜ Now 38.4%, above the roughly 34% peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble
France-Germany 10-Year Yield Spread Tops 0.99%, a 14-Year High
France minus Germany 10-year government bond yield spread ｜ About 0.99%, the widest since 2012
Diesel Crack Spread Soars From About $25 to Over $100 Year-to-Date in 2026
Diesel crack spread year-to-date in 2026 ｜ Up from about $25 to roughly $102/barrel, a year-to-date high
German Net Migration of Foreigners Falls to Near Zero in June 2026, Far Below the 2022 Peak
Germany net migration of foreigners, in thousands ｜ Peaked near 483k in March 2022, back to about zero by June 2026
S&P 500 Upside Volatility Keeps Outpacing Downside
SPX 1-month upside vs downside realized volatility ratio ｜ Recently above 1, with upside vol exceeding downside
AAII Bearish Sentiment Climbs to 53%, the Highest in More Than a Year
AAII individual-investor bull/neutral/bear sentiment shares ｜ Bearish share rises to about 53%, the highest in over a year
S&P 500 Annualized EPS Tracks the Index at 92% Correlation, With Earnings Still Rising
S&P 500 quarterly annualized EPS vs the index, log scale ｜ 92% correlation, with Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings estimated higher
Big Tech's Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments Top $3tn, Led by Google's ~$866bn
Hyperscaler off-balance-sheet and contingent commitments, $bn ｜ Total exceeds $3tn, with Google at ~$866bn and Meta at ~$705bn
In Midterm Years, the S&P 500 Falls 1.1% on Average in Late September With a 42% Hit Rate
S&P 500 half-month seasonality in midterm years, 1928-2025 ｜ Late September averages -1.1% with a 42% positive rate, rebounding from October
World's Oil Chokepoints Carry 91.7% of Seaborne Crude, Led by Malacca
Global oil maritime chokepoints, b/d ｜ Malacca moves 23.2M b/d and Hormuz 20.9M b/d, 26.2% of seaborne trade
Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $100k by Year-End Rise to 43% on Polymarket
Polymarket odds of Bitcoin hitting $100k by December 31 ｜ Now 43%, up from about 15% a week earlier
When September Is Negative Through Day 13, the Rest of the Month Rises Just 38% of the Time
S&P 500 rest-of-September returns after a negative first 13 days, since 1950 ｜ Rest of month is positive only 38.2% of the time, averaging -1.1%
AI-Related Investment's Contribution to US Real GDP Growth Hits a Century High
US AI-related investment contribution to real GDP growth ｜ About 0.8pp in 2026, the highest since 2000
Brent Crude Slips From $107 to Near $97 on US-Iran De-escalation Hopes
Brent crude price, daily ｜ After peaking near $107 in September, Brent has slipped to around $97
2025 Crude Oil Production by Country: US Leads at 13.58 mb/d
Annualized crude oil production by country, 2025 ｜ US 13.58, Russia 9.87, Saudi Arabia 9.51 mb/d
US Crude Output Keeps Climbing, Reaching 13.98M b/d in April 2026
US crude oil production by month, 2026 vs prior years, million b/d ｜ April peaked at 13.98M and September is estimated at 13.95M, above every prior year
Discretionary Investor Positioning Falls to the 19th Percentile as Systematic Rises to the 88th
Discretionary vs systematic equity positioning ｜ Discretionary at the 19th percentile, systematic at the 88th
US Breakeven Inflation Eases to a 2.3%-2.4% Range Across Tenors
US breakeven inflation, nominal minus TIPS yield ｜ 5y, 10y and 20y converge near 2.3%-2.4%
BofA: Systematic Equity Positioning at $434bn, With Even a Flat Week Now Selling
Estimated systematic global equity positioning and next-week flow paths ｜ Now ~$434bn, ~$115bn above the five-year median; a down week would sell ~$157bn
Energy Leads S&P 500 Breadth With 62%/76% Above Its 50- and 200-Day Averages
Share of S&P 500 members above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, by sector ｜ Energy strongest at 62%/76%, Utilities weakest at 6%/13%
The Average Stock Sits 19.3% Below Its 52-Week High; Discretionary Deepest at -25.6%
Average distance from 52-week high by sector ｜ Consumer Discretionary -25.6% is deepest, Energy -11.3% shallowest, S&P 500 -19.3%
US Treasury Bills Climb to 22.8% of Marketable Debt, Near a GFC High
US Treasury bills as a share of marketable debt ｜ Now 22.8%, the highest since the GFC outside the 2020 spike
More Than a Dozen Central Banks Set Rates This Week, From Monday to Thursday
Central-bank rate-decision calendar this week ｜ Covers Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, Indonesia and others across Monday-Thursday
Global Humanoid Robot Shipments Seen at 49mn Units and a $729bn Market by 2050
Global humanoid robot shipment and market-size forecast ｜ 49mn units and about $729bn by 2050
CoWoS vs. EMIB Packaging: CoWoS Yields 98%+, EMIB Runs 30-40% Cheaper
TSMC CoWoS vs. Intel EMIB advanced-packaging comparison ｜ CoWoS delivers 98%+ yield; EMIB is 30-40% cheaper at 10-12x reticle
Japan Has the Lowest Equity-Index Concentration, With a 29% Top-10 Weight
Single-stock and IT-sector concentration across Japan, US, Korea, Taiwan ｜ Japan's top-10 weight is 29% and IT weight 18%, the lowest of the four
The S&P 500 Tracks Its Quarterly EPS Closely, With a 92% Correlation
S&P 500 index vs quarterly EPS, log scale, since end-2019 ｜ The two move together with a 92% correlation as earnings pull the index higher
Tech Nears New Highs While Energy Pulls Back and Industrials Sit Oversold
Energy, Industrials and Technology sector price and trading ranges ｜ Tech near the upper band and new highs, Industrials in oversold territory
DB Consolidated Equity Positioning Falls to Neutral, in the 48th Percentile Since 2010
Weighted-average z-score of equity positioning indicators, since 2010 ｜ Now back near zero, in the 48th percentile since 2010
Big Tech's Off-Balance-Sheet AI Commitments Exceed $3tn, Google Leads
Hyperscaler off-balance-sheet and contingent commitments, $bn ｜ Total tops $3tn; Google ~$866bn, Microsoft ~$558bn
CoWoS vs. EMIB Packaging: CoWoS Yields 98%+, EMIB Runs 30-40% Cheaper
TSMC CoWoS vs. Intel EMIB advanced-packaging comparison ｜ CoWoS delivers 98%+ yield; EMIB is 30-40% cheaper at 10-12x reticle
Credo (CRDO) Climbs From ~$30 to ~$300 in Two Years, Now Back Near $210
Credo Technology share price vs sell-side estimates ｜ Up from about $30 in September 2024 to a peak near $300, now around $210
Honda's Humanoid Robot History: From the 1986 E0 to the 2000 ASIMO
Honda's bipedal robot models over time ｜ From E0 to ASIMO, spanning 1986 to 2000, across experimental and prototype models
iPhone Nominal Price Up 50% From 2010 to 2026 as Official CPI Applies Quality Adjustments
iPhone nominal price vs official inflation treatment ｜ $600 in 2010 to $900 in 2026, a 50% rise
Share of Members Above the 200-Day Average: S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Both at 53%
Percentage of index members above their 200-day moving average, since 2020 ｜ S&P 500 and Russell 2000 at 53%, Nasdaq at 43%
20 Tech Stocks Drive the S&P 500 Since ChatGPT, With Nvidia Contributing Nearly 16%
Tech stock price gains vs contribution to the S&P 500 ｜ Nvidia up over 1,300% and about 16% of the gain, Sandisk up nearly 3,000%
Combined Free Cash Flow of the Five Hyperscalers Falls to About $35bn in Q2 2026
Combined free cash flow of five large hyperscalers and its yield ｜ Down from about $170bn in 2024 to roughly $35bn in Q2 2026
BofA: SPX Dealer Gamma Rebounds to $7.7bn, Dampening Volatility Into October
SPX dealer gamma over time and across spot ｜ Rebounded to $7.7bn (79th percentile) from $1.8bn; turns negative only below ~7,350
Breadth Weakens: Just 29% of S&P 500 Members Above Their 50-Day Average
Percentage of index members above their 50-day moving average, since 2020 ｜ S&P 500 at 29%, Nasdaq 37%, Russell 2000 32%
Sub-Saharan Africa Clean-Cooking Investment Rises Across Equipment and Infrastructure, 2020-2024
Clean-cooking investment in sub-Saharan Africa by use ｜ Equipment near $470mn in 2024, with LPG the largest share
Front-Month Brent Falls Back Below $100 on September 22
Front-month Brent futures and spot Brent ($/bbl), 2026 ｜ On Sep 22, front-month Brent slipped back below $100 to around $98, though spot stays elevated
Amazon Revenue Reaches About $710B in FY2025, Led by $269B of Online Stores
Amazon revenue by segment, stacked, FY2021-FY2025 (USD $B) ｜ FY2025 total about $710B, with Online Stores at $269.3B plus AWS and advertising
Rare-Earth Export Controls Put Over $6.5 Trillion of Downstream Output at Risk, Led by Autos
Economic value of downstream production at risk from full export controls of rare earths and graphite, by sector, 2025 ｜ Rare earths underpin over $6.5T, led by automotive, while graphite covers ~$320B
Share of Members Above the 200-Day Average Slips to 53% for the S&P 500 and 43% for the Nasdaq
Percent of members above the 200-day moving average, S&P 500 / Nasdaq / Russell 2000 ｜ S&P 500 at 53%, Russell 2000 at 54%, Nasdaq at 43% as breadth weakens
US Distillate Fuel Exports Rise 31% Since February, Up 386,000 Barrels Per Day
US daily distillate (diesel) fuel exports, 2016-2026 ｜ Up 31% from Feb 27 to Sep 11, 2026, a gain of 386,000 barrels per day
US Household Money-Market Fund Assets Hit a Record $5.11 Trillion
US money market funds held by households, 2000-2026 ｜ Up to a record $5.11 trillion, about 89% above the 2020 pandemic peak
France Average Annual Earnings in 2024: €63,000 Employer Cost, €43,700 Gross, €33,200 Net
France average annual earnings, 1951-2024 (constant 2024 euros) ｜ 2024: employer cost €63,000, gross salary €43,700, net salary €33,200
McKinsey Maps Energy Supply Disruptions: 2026 Hormuz Event Peaks at ~15% of Global Supply
Selected energy supply disruptions by duration and peak impact ｜ The 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption peaks at ~15% of global oil and gas supply, the largest on the chart
China's Gold Import Spending Hits a Record ~$159 Billion in 2026
Chinese gold imports (US$bn), 2015-2026 ｜ $158.8bn in the first eight months of 2026, already above the $96.5bn full-year 2025
Total Fertility Rate in 2024: World 2.19, US 1.60, Japan 1.15, South Korea 0.75
Total fertility rate by country and US state, 2024 (births per woman) ｜ World 2.19, US 1.60, Washington DC 1.11, China 1.01, South Korea lowest at 0.75
S&P 500 Operating EPS Runs ~50% Above Its Long-Term Trend, With 2027 Estimated at $385
S&P 500 operating EPS versus its long-term ~6% growth trend, 2014-2027E ｜ Consensus of ~$340 in 2026 and ~$385 in 2027 sits about 50% above trend
UBS Sees DRAM Contract Prices Up 766% and NAND Up 471% in the Strongest Memory Cycle in Decades
DRAM and NAND contract-price cycles, UBS ｜ Current cycle +766% for DRAM over 13 quarters and +471% for NAND over 9 quarters
Active Satellites Top 14,000, With SpaceX Starlink at ~66% of the Total
Number of active satellites orbiting Earth, 1995 to early 2026 ｜ The total exceeds 14,000, with SpaceX's Starlink making up about 66%
In Midterm Years the S&P 500 Bottoms Around Sep 30 Before Rallying to +4.6% by Year-End
S&P 500 second-half seasonality in midterm years (1928-2025, indexed to July 1) ｜ Average path troughs on Sep 30, then rises to +4.6% by year-end vs +4.0% for all years
Fixed-Income Yields by Asset Class: Private Credit Tops at 8.3%
Current yields by fixed-income asset class ｜ Private credit yields 8.3%, versus 5.0% for 10y Treasuries and 3.5% for money-market funds
US Continuing Jobless Claims Fall to 1.73M, Lowest Since January 2024, Down 10% YoY
US continuing unemployment claims (SA) and its YoY change, 2024-2026 ｜ The latest ~1.73M is the lowest since January 2024, down 10.13% year-on-year
US Distillate Exports Surge to the Netherlands, From 14M to 37M Barrels/Month
Top 10 destinations of US distillate fuel oil exports, first half of 2025 vs 2026 (million barrels/month) ｜ Exports to the Netherlands jump from 14M to 37M, while Mexico stays No.1
Fixed-Income Yields by Asset Class: Private Credit at 8.3%, High Yield at 7.6%
Yields by fixed-income asset class (%) ｜ Private credit 8.3%, high yield 7.6%, IG credit 5.7%, 10Y Treasuries 5.0%, money-market funds 3.5%
EU Diesel Prices Rose 8.3% in August and Petrol 3.3%, With Czechia's Diesel Up 14.3%
Monthly price change for diesel and petrol by EU country, August 2026 (%) ｜ EU diesel +8.3% and petrol +3.3%, Czechia diesel +14.3% the largest
US Long-Term Interest Rates Have Risen Since 2020, Driven by Higher Expected Short Rates
US 10-year Treasury yield, 5y5y forward rate, and average expected short rate over 10 years (bp) ｜ The 10-year yield rose from ~60bp in 2020 to ~475bp, with expected short rates up to ~350bp
Market Now Sees Fed Funds at 4.22% by End-2026, Versus 3.05% Expected at the Start of the Year
Market-implied fed funds rate, Fed Funds futures (Jan-2026 to Jan-2027) ｜ End-2026 now seen at 4.22% vs 3.05% at the start of the year, a swing from cuts to hikes
Goldman Sees Hyperscaler Capex Adding 11pp to S&P 500 EPS Growth in 2026, Turning Negative by 2028
Estimated contribution of hyperscaler capex to S&P 500 EPS growth ｜ Peaks at ~+11pp in 2026, then fades to ~-1pp by 2028 as depreciation rises
Goldman: Fully Expensing Capex Would Cut 2027 S&P 500 EPS by 22%
S&P 500 EPS, capex through depreciation vs full expensing (2023-2028) ｜ 2027 EPS $419 vs $328 (22% lower), the widest gap in decades amid the AI capex boom
China's Gold Imports Top 1,000 Tons Through August, Highest Since at Least 2017
China gold imports, Jan-Aug by year (tons) ｜ 2026 ran above 1,000 tons through August, the highest for the period since at least 2017
S&P 500 Shiller P/E Sits Near the 99th Valuation Percentile, With 10-Year Yields at the 27th
Valuation percentiles since 1871 for the S&P 500 Shiller P/E and the US 10-year yield ｜ Equity valuations are near the 99th percentile while bond yields sit around the 27th, close to their long-run average
Tech-Sector ETF Market Share Nears 50%, With Record 12-Month Inflows
Tech ETF market share (RHS) and rolling 12m net flows (LHS), 2006-2026 ｜ Market share near 50%, an all-time high, as rolling inflows hit a record
Broader Technology Reaches a Record 51% of S&P 500 Market Cap, Versus Just 12% for Financials
Share of S&P 500 market cap by sector (stacked, since 2006) ｜ Broader technology at 51% on Aug 31, 2026, an all-time high, with financials 12% and health care 9%
Indonesia's Processed Nickel Output Hits 1.41M Tonnes, Overtaking China as World's Largest Since 2021
Processed nickel production, top-5 producers, tonnes, 1977-2023 ｜ Indonesia at 1.41M t in 2023, having overtaken China in 2021
UBS: DRAM Contract Prices Up 766% and NAND Up 471% This Cycle, Rising Into End-2027
DRAM and NAND contract pricing cycles (UBS) ｜ DRAM +766% over 13 quarters and NAND +471% over 9 quarters, with gains projected into end-2027
Share of US Core Services Ex-Shelter Items With Above-3% YoY Inflation Rebounds to About 40%
US core PCE services ex-shelter, share of items with YoY inflation above 3% (since 1990) ｜ Latest back to about 40%, well above the mid-2010s lows
S&P 500 Keeps Making Highs but Breadth Narrows, With Only 53% of Members Above Their 200-Day Average
S&P 500 vs equal-weighted index with 200-day breadth, 2024-2026 ｜ Index at 7,651, equal-weight 8,577, and members above the 200-day average down from 74% to 53%
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index vs Advanced Foreign Economies Rises to 113.1 on Sept 18
Nominal advanced foreign economies U.S. dollar index (Jan 2006=100) ｜ Up to 113.1 on Sept 18, rebounding from the early-September dip
Japan's Net Interest Payments Just 0.9% of GDP, Among the Lowest in the OECD in 2027
Net interest payments as % of GDP, 2027 forecast ｜ Japan at 0.9%, near the OECD low, vs the US around 4.3% and Italy 3.8%
China's Tungsten Mine Output Hits 67,000 Tonnes in 2025, Over 20x No.2 Vietnam
Top 10 tungsten mine producers, 2024 vs 2025 ｜ China at 67,000 tonnes dwarfs No.2 Vietnam's 3,000 tonnes
Meta Total Call Option Volume Hits a Record 1.821M Contracts
Meta total call option volume, 2012-2026 (contracts) ｜ Latest single-day reading 1.821M, the highest on record
Extra-EU Petroleum Oil Imports Rebound to ~€28B/Month in Q2 2026, Back to 2022 Levels
Extra-EU imports of energy by value and volume, 2022 to Q2 2026 ｜ Petroleum oil import value rebounds to ~€28B/month, near 2022 levels, while volume is roughly flat
South Korea's Forward P/E Relative to EM Falls to About 0.5, the Widest Discount Since 2001
South Korea forward P/E relative to emerging markets (since 2001, with average) ｜ Latest about 0.5x versus a long-run average near 0.83, the deepest discount since 2001
UBS Sees Memory Rising to 64% of Hyperscaler Capex by 2027
Top-12 hyperscaler capex and memory spending (US$bn) ｜ Memory rises from $71bn (14%) in 2025 to $933bn (64%) in 2027E
Goldman's 10-Year S&P 500 Return Ranges From 14% in an AI Boom to About 4.5% in Stagflation
Goldman 10-year annualized return scenarios by structural regime ｜ S&P 500 at 14% in "Goldilocks + AI boom" vs ~4.5% in stagflation
Goldman's Three Fed Policy Scenarios: 45% Base Case Sees a 25bp December Hike
Goldman's near-term Fed policy scenarios and probabilities ｜ The base case (45%) sees a December hike to 4-4.25%, while the most hawkish (20%) has tightening extend into 2027
EUR IG Credit Spread Paths Diverge Sharply Across ECB Hiking Cycles
EUR IG credit spread change vs days from the first ECB hike (bp) ｜ 2011 widened more than 250bp after the first hike while 2022 tightened about 43bp, a wide dispersion