Yole: AI InP/GaAs Bare-Die Market Grows to ~$43B by 2031, a 63% CAGR
AI InP/GaAs bare-die market, 2025 vs 2031, split by application ｜ Rising from ~$2B in 2025 to ~$43B by 2031 at a 63% CAGR, with scale-up at $36B
2026-11 Financial Charts
English financial charts and market context published in 2026-11, page 13.
Share Viewing Tariffs as Helpful Falls: US Down From 49% to 37% in a Year
Percent agreeing global tariffs help their country (FII/Ipsos) ｜ US fell from 49% in 2025 to 37% in 2026; China stays highest near 56%
AI Stocks' 6-Month Edge Over Non-AI Plunges to About -35%, Worst of the Bull Market
Trailing 6-month excess return, Broad AI vs S&P 500 ex-AI (percentage points) ｜ Now around -35%, the worst of this four-year bull market after peaking near +60% in September
After Joint VIX and VVIX Spikes, the S&P 500 Was Higher One Month Later in All 6 Cases, Averaging +2.3%
S&P 500 path after same-day VIX and VVIX spikes, 6 cases since 2007 ｜ Up one month later in all six (avg +2.3%), but higher only 4 of 6 at three months, with 2018 and 2021 down 6.8% and 4.8%
S&P 500 Second-Half Seasonality in Midterm Years Tends to Rally After Election Day
S&P 500 second-half performance, all years vs midterm years, indexed to July 1 ｜ Midterm years end +4.6% vs +4.0% for all years, with the low typically around Sep 30
Global M1 Growth Leads Equities by Six Months and Has Turned Down Again
Arkevium Global M1 Index (6-month lead) vs. MSCI World YoY ｜ M1 momentum has rolled over again, pointing to pressure on global equities
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Climbs to 69.8 on Data Beats
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, daily ｜ At 69.8 on Nov 6, deep in positive territory as data top forecasts by the widest margin in months
US Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly Change Runs Below 200K in 2026, With the 3-Month Average Back Near 150K
US nonfarm payrolls monthly change and 3-month moving average, thousands ｜ 2026 gains mostly below 200K with several negative months; 3-month average recently back to ~150K
Economy Tops US Voters' 2026 Midterm Concerns, With 50% Calling It 'Extremely Important'
Importance of issues to US voters, 2026 midterms, % of registered voters ｜ Economy leads with 50% 'extremely important' (87% combined), ahead of healthcare and the Iran War
IEA Sees Renewables Nearing 50% of Global Power Within Five Years
Share of global electricity by renewable technology, 2015-2031 (stacked) ｜ Rising from about a third toward 50%, with solar PV the biggest contributor
US Labor Share of Nonfarm Business Income Falls to ~53%, a Record Low Since 1947
Labor share of income, US nonfarm business sector, %, 1947-2026 ｜ Down from ~64-66% postwar to about 53%, a record low and still falling
French Real Wages Turn Negative as Inflation Outpaces Pay
French wage growth, inflation and inflation-adjusted wages, 2019-2026 ｜ Real wages fell about 1.1% YoY in Q3 as inflation near 2.8% ran ahead of pay
Goldman Sees a 100bp Yield Rise Cutting GDP Most in Sweden and Australia, Near 1 Point
Cumulative GDP effect of a 100bp rate rise across the curve, by country and channel ｜ Sweden ~-1.0 and Australia ~-0.9pp are deepest; DM average ~-0.63pp
Polymarket Puts Le Pen at 45% to Win the Next French Presidential Election, Well Ahead
Polymarket implied odds for France's next president ｜ Le Pen 45%, ahead of Lisnard 15%, Melenchon 14% and Philippe 10%
~40% of US Planned Data-Center Capacity Sits in States Whose Governors-Elect Backed Moratoriums
US map of planned data-center capacity by state ｜ About 40% of capacity is in states with governors-elect who backed moratoriums; largest bubbles mark ~80K MW
US Core Capital Goods Shipments Rise 11.6% YoY, Fastest Since Mid-2021
US nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, YoY change ｜ Latest 11.6%, the fastest pace since the mid-2021 recovery
US CPI Seen Decelerating in October as Gasoline Prices Ease
US headline and core CPI month-over-month (October estimated) ｜ Both headline and core seen easing to about 0.2% as gasoline softens
BofA Survey: 50% of Investors Expect a No-Landing, Only 6% a Hard Landing
Three scenarios from BofA's October fund manager survey (bubble, breadth, bust) ｜ 50% predict a no-landing, 40% a soft landing and just 6% a hard landing
France's 2026 Public Finances: €1.755T Spending, €165B Deficit, €3.65T Debt
French government finances for 2026 (EUR) ｜ Revenue €1,590B, spending €1,755B, deficit €165B, public debt €3,650B
Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Hits a Record -$56.4bn in a Single Day
Leveraged ETF rebalancing notional ($bn) ｜ A record -$56.4bn on Nov 5, the most extreme in five years and at the 0th percentile
Morgan Stanley's Wilson Roadmap: One More Leg Down to 7,100 Before 8,000
S&P 500 vs Wilson's support zone and year-end target, plus his past calls vs outcomes ｜ Index 7,580; support 7,100-7,200 (-5% to -6.3%), target 8,000
Mega-Cap Forward P/E at 21.2x, Premium Over Small Caps Narrowest in 8 Years
Forward P/E ratios for MegaCap-8, LargeCap, MidCap and SmallCap ｜ MegaCap-8 at 21.2x versus 17.6x, 14.3x and 13.8x, the tightest premium in eight years
Global Climate Finance Tops the $100bn Goal, EU Alone Provides ~$38bn
Global international climate finance estimates vs EU climate finance ($bn) ｜ The global total reached ~$130bn in 2024, with the EU providing ~$38bn in 2025
IEA Sees EMDE ex-China Renewable Additions Matching Advanced Economies by 2031
Renewable capacity additions by region, 2020-25 vs 2026-31 forecast (GW) ｜ Other EMDE ~1,090 GW in 2026-31, nearing advanced economies' ~1,160 GW
Nomura Sees Global NPO/CPO Shipments Reaching ~40mn Units by 2028
Global NPO/CPO shipment forecast (mn units, NPO+CPO stacked) ｜ ~40mn in 2028F vs ~7.5mn in 2027F, more than 5x growth
Kalshi 2027 French Presidential Odds: Le Pen Leads at 47%
Kalshi implied odds for the 2027 French presidential winner ｜ Le Pen 47%, Lisnard 15%, Mélenchon 14%, Philippe 8.6%, Lagarde 6%
Top 1% of US Households Own 47% of Equities, Bottom 50% Just 1%
Share of US household equity ownership by wealth percentile ｜ The top 1% hold 47% and the top 10% hold 87%, versus 1% for the bottom half
US Job Openings by Census Region, the South Leads at ~2.7 Million
Total nonfarm job openings by US census region (thousands) ｜ The South leads at roughly 2.7 million, ahead of the West near 1.5 million
The World's Coal Pipeline Has Halved Since 2015, Down 82% Outside China and India
Coal power capacity in development, 2015 vs 2025, GW ｜ Worldwide 1,428 to 710 GW (-50%); outside China & India 445 to 78 GW (-82%)
U.S. Excess M2 Growth vs Inflation Shows a Loose Link Since 1960
Quarterly excess M2 growth vs headline PCE inflation, 1960-2026 ｜ Excess M2 hit 92.5% in 2020 Q2 (excluded from the chart)
Russell 1000 Value Returns 24.3% in 2026 vs -6.4% for Growth
2026 total return, Russell 1000 Value vs Growth ｜ Value +24.3% vs Growth -6.4%, a gap of over 30 points
Big Tech CapEx-to-Revenue Ratios Hit Records: Meta 43%, Microsoft 39%
CapEx-to-revenue ratio (TTM) for Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon ｜ Meta 0.432, Microsoft 0.392, Google 0.339, Amazon 0.270, all at record highs
IMF Sees MENAP GDP Contracting 1.3% in 2026 Before Rebounding to 6.6% in 2027
GDP growth for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan, IMF estimates and projections ｜ -1.3% in 2026, rebounding to 6.6% in 2027 after 3.3% in 2025
US Purchase Mortgage Applications Index Falls to 131, Near Multi-Year Lows
US purchase mortgage applications index (MBA) ｜ Latest 131, near the 125-128 2023-24 trough and far below the 2021 peak of 348
Cost of Mining Copper 2019–2025: First Quantum +54%, Southern Copper −34%
Per-pound copper mining cost by major producer, 2019–2025 (US$/lb) ｜ 2025 vs 2019: First Quantum +54%, Codelco +47%, Southern Copper −34%
Data Centres Lost 46 of 47 Local Ballots in the US Midterms
Share of votes against data centres on Nov 3, by state ｜ 46 of 47 local ballots went against them, with Harwood, ND the only win
AMD's MI355X With TileRT Tops GB300 on Tokens-per-Dollar at High Interactivity
DeepSeek V4.1 total tokens per $1 TCO vs P90 interactivity ｜ MI355X with TileRT extends to ~1,400 tok/s/user, beyond the GB300 curve
U.S. Psychiatric Disorders by Sex: Conduct Disorder Skews Male 4.2x, PTSD Skews Female 2.9x
Female-to-male ratio of 12-month prevalence, U.S. adults, log scale ｜ Conduct disorder most male-skewed at 4.2x; PTSD most female-skewed at 2.9x
France-Germany 10-Year Spread Climbs to ~170bps, Tracking Brent After the September Pipeline Attack
Front-month Brent vs France's 10-year spread over Germany, 2026 ｜ After the Sep 10 pipeline attack, oil jumped and the spread widened from ~60bps to ~170bps
US Nonfarm Job Openings Back Near 7.5mn as Hires Hold Around 5.4mn
US nonfarm job openings vs. hires (thousands, JOLTS) ｜ Openings down from the 2022 peak of 12.3mn to ~7.5mn, with hires lingering near 5.4mn
Iran's 8 Land and Caspian Neighbours Did $42bn of Non-Oil Trade, Turkey Leads at $19.4bn
Iran's non-oil trade with its reachable neighbours, 2024-25 ｜ About $42bn total, with Turkey ($19.4bn) and Iraq ($12.5bn) three of every four dollars
AI Costs Are Falling Faster Than Any Prior Transformative Technology
Relative cost decline vs years since onset, log scale ｜ AI (2021-26) shows the steepest drop, about 1,000,000x in roughly five years
Hyperscalers Have Issued $296bn of Debt in 2026, Nearing 9% of IG Supply
Hyperscaler debt issuance by currency ($bn) and share of IG gross supply ｜ 2026 YTD at $296bn, a record, rising to ~9% of all IG supply
US and European Rate Expectations Ease From Peak but Stay 110bp+ Above Pre-War
Implied one-month rate in one year (1Y1M swap) for the eurozone, US and UK ｜ Still +116bp, +128bp and +149bp above pre-Iran-war levels, though easing from October highs
2026 YTD Central-Bank Gold Flows: Poland Leads at +123t, Turkey the Largest Seller at -82t
Central-bank gold net purchases/sales YTD 2026, tonnes ｜ Poland +123t and China +103t lead buying; Turkey the largest net seller at -82t through September
US Manufacturing Payrolls Add 19,000 in October, a 5th Straight Gain and the Longest Streak Since 2022
US nonfarm manufacturing payrolls, monthly change, 2021-2026 ｜ +19,000 in October, a 5th consecutive gain and the longest streak since 2022, versus a -61,000 monthly drop in 2024
Households Own 42% of US Equities, the Largest Single Holder
Ownership of the US corporate equity market, 1990-2026 ｜ Households 42%, foreign investors 18%, mutual funds 15%, ETFs 10%
Goldman's Memory-Exposed Stock Basket Has Fallen 51% From Its June Peak, Its Deepest Drop Since ChatGPT
Goldman memory-exposed basket, cumulative gain and drawdown since Nov 30, 2022 ｜ Peaked +1,202% on Jun 22; now +540%, down 51% from the high
Tech Forward P/E at 17.0x Falls Below Consumer Staples at 23.6x
Forward P/E for Technology vs Consumer Staples ｜ Tech at 17.0x sits below its 23.0x 10-year average while Staples at 23.6x runs above its own
US Macronutrient Mix Barely Differs Between Rich and Poor
Share of daily energy from carbs, fat, protein and alcohol, US low- vs high-income adults ｜ The macronutrient split is nearly identical across income, differing only slightly on alcohol
S&P 500 Historically Bottoms ~15 Trading Days After a Geopolitical Shock, ~4% Lower
S&P 500 indexed around 30+ geopolitical events since 1939 ｜ Median troughs near day 15, about 4% below the pre-shock level
Texas Leads US Data Center Pipeline at ~63 GW, Driven by First-Time Developers
Data center pipeline IT capacity by state (GW), by project stage and developer experience ｜ Texas tops the list near 63 GW, ahead of Georgia and Virginia around 41-42 GW
Nvidia's Forward P/E Falls to 13x, 40% Below Its 10-Year Median Trough of 22x
Nvidia NTM P/E vs its 10-year median trough (22x) ｜ Now 13x, about 40% below the median trough; the 2020 trough was 20x
Citi Sees a -3.8% DRAM Supply/Demand Gap in 2027, -3.6% in 2028
Global DRAM supply, demand and S/D ratio, 2011-2031E ｜ S/D ratio -3.8% in 2027E and -3.6% in 2028E, swinging from +0.5% in 2026E
BofA Scorecard: Tech Leaders Break Below Key Levels While Banks and Junk Bonds Hold, S&P 500 Stays Above 7,000
BofA six-panel scorecard of leaders and risk assets ｜ NVDA under $200, TSM under $400, MAGS under $70; S&P 500 at 7,377 on Nov 6, still above 7,000
S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation Falls to 0.14 as Dispersion Widens
S&P 500 3-month realized average stock correlation, since 2016 ｜ Now down to 0.14, far below the ~0.8 spike of 2020, pointing to high single-stock dispersion
Deutsche Bank Equity Positioning Plunges to Underweight at -0.54sd
Deutsche Bank equity positioning: consolidated/discretionary/systematic (z-scores, percentiles) ｜ Consolidated -0.54sd (20th pct), discretionary -1.1sd (3rd pct), at the bottom of its band
Institutional Digital-Asset Map Spans 672 Initiatives, Led by Traditional Finance at 509
Institutional digital-asset network of 672 initiatives grouped by category ｜ Traditional Finance 509 and crypto-native 407 lead; settlement 176, digital money 154
Goldman Prime Book Global AI 20-Day Net Flow Hits Deepest Since 2022
Goldman Prime Book global AI cumulative 20-day net flow (% of gross market value) ｜ Trailing 20 days thru Nov 5 near -9.4%, the lowest on the chart
About 45% of Global Central Banks Hiked in the Past Three Months, a 3-Year High
Share of global central banks tightening vs easing over the trailing three months ｜ The tightening share has climbed to about 45%, the highest in three years