【公寓貸款拖欠率回到 8%，上次這麼高是因為一棟社區 🏢】
美國私募發行的出租公寓抵押貸款證券，十月拖欠率升到 8.09%，比九月多了約 5 個基點，從六月起連五個月往上，差不多是 2024 年低點的六倍。
這個數字常被寫成「2016 年以來最高」。看一下圖上 2016 年初那一刀就知道這個比較有多奇怪：拖欠率從 8.2% 直接掉到 2.4%，一個月內少掉快六個百分點。那不是市場好轉，是紐約 Stuyvesant Town 那一筆約 30 億美元的貸款結清了。一筆貸款，等於全國指數六個百分點。
現在也還是同一回事。十月那 5 個基點的上升，主要來自舊金山灣區一筆 2.1 億美元的公寓貸款違約。而同一個月，全體商用不動產的拖欠率反而降了 15 個基點到 7.87%，因為另一筆 9.75 億美元的貸款恢復正常繳款。
這代表這個池子太小、太集中，單筆貸款就能決定方向，月與月之間的變化很難當成趨勢。真正的大宗在房利美、房地美和銀行的帳上，不在這些證券裡。
當成一個觀察樣本可以，當成全美公寓債務的溫度計不行。
資料來源：Trepp 十月商用不動產抵押貸款證券拖欠率資料，以及多家不動產媒體對當月個別貸款異動的報導（圖片來自 @KobeissiLetter）
Apartment Loan Delinquencies Are Back at 8%, and 2016 Is a Bad Comparison
The delinquency rate on private-label US apartment mortgage securities rose to 8.09% in October, about 5 basis points above September. It has climbed for five straight months since June and now sits at roughly six times the 2024 low.
The number usually gets written up as the highest since 2016. One look at the cliff on the left-hand side of this chart shows how odd that comparison is. In early 2016 the rate fell from 8.2% to 2.4% in a single month, nearly six percentage points. That was not the market healing. It was the roughly $3 billion loan on New York's Stuyvesant Town being paid off. One loan, six points of a national index.
The same thing is happening now. October's 5 basis point rise came mostly from a single $210 million apartment loan in the San Francisco Bay Area going delinquent. In that same month the all-property commercial real estate rate actually fell 15 basis points to 7.87%, because a separate $975 million loan returned to current.
That tells you the pool is small and concentrated enough for one loan to set the direction, which makes month-to-month moves hard to read as a trend. The bulk of US apartment debt sits with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and banks, not in these securities.
It works as one sample. It does not work as a thermometer for American apartment credit.
Source: Trepp's October CMBS delinquency data and real estate trade coverage of the individual loans that moved the month (Image: @KobeissiLetter)