【出口創新高的同時，人民幣的實質匯率反而更便宜 🚢】
中國的十二個月滾動出口指數升破 190，創下新高。以 2016 年 1 月為 100 來看，十年之間接近翻倍。
同一張圖上還有另一條線。人民幣的實質有效匯率約 92，比 2016 年那個起點還低。
這個組合不太尋常。出口大幅領先、順差持續擴大，通常會把一國貨幣推上去，這裡沒有發生。
關鍵在實質有效匯率怎麼算。它是拿名目匯率再用兩邊的物價調整過。中國這兩年消費者物價幾乎零成長，工廠出廠價還在跌，貿易對手的物價則一直在漲。光是這個物價差，就足以讓實質匯率在名目匯率不動的情況下慢慢往下走。
出口價格本身也在跌。2025 年底的出口價格約比一年前低 4%、比兩年前低近一成，背後是產能過剩轉成了價格競爭力。這代表出口金額創高的同時，實際出貨的數量成長比金額看起來更大。
所以這張圖講的不是人民幣被刻意壓低，而是中國把過剩的產能換成了國際市場的份額，代價是本國物價起不來。
要補一句，近期出口多了一塊晶片與電腦，那是需求拉動的，和降價搶單是兩回事，兩股力量現在疊在同一條線上。
資料來源：中國海關出口統計、國際清算銀行人民幣實質有效匯率，以及出口價格與消費者物價的官方公布資料（圖片來自 @acemaxx）
China's Exports Hit a Record While Its Real Exchange Rate Got Cheaper
China's 12-month rolling export index has pushed above 190, a record. Set against January 2016 at 100, it has nearly doubled in a decade.
There is a second line on the same chart. The yuan's real effective exchange rate sits around 92, below where that decade started.
The combination is unusual. A sustained export boom and a widening surplus normally push a currency up. That has not happened here.
The answer is in how a real effective rate is built. It takes the nominal exchange rate and adjusts it for prices on both sides. Chinese consumer prices have been close to flat for two years and factory gate prices are still falling, while trading partners' prices keep rising. That inflation gap alone is enough to drag the real rate down while the nominal rate barely moves.
Export prices are falling too. By late 2025 they were about 4% below a year earlier and close to 10% below two years earlier, as overcapacity turned into price competitiveness. So behind a record export value, the growth in actual volume shipped is larger than the dollar figure suggests.
What this chart shows, then, is not a currency being held down on purpose. It is a country converting surplus capacity into market share, and paying for it with prices at home that will not rise.
One addition: a growing share of recent exports is chips and computers, which is demand pulling rather than discounting winning orders. Both forces now sit on the same line.
Source: China customs export data, Bank for International Settlements yuan real effective exchange rate, and official export and consumer price releases (Image: @acemaxx)