【中國的晶片股指數，半年跌掉快五成 📉】
以晶片股為主的科創 50 指數，從六月底的高點一路跌到十一月，最深跌掉 48%，指數從約 2,180 點掉到 1,200 點以下。
跌勢不是從壞消息開始的。交易員找不到單一觸發點，比較具體的幾項是估值太高、獲利了結的稅負考量，以及美國可能再收緊出口管制。監管單位同時在壓抑融資交易和高頻交易，官方背景的資金也在反彈時賣出降溫。
常被跳過的數字是估值。這個指數在高點時的本益比接近 250 倍，跌掉快五成之後還有大約 100 倍。這波下跌沒有讓它變便宜，只是把它從極端拉回到昂貴。
護盤的錢已經進場。一週之內有 1,287 億人民幣流入九檔由官方背景資金活躍交易的指數基金，是 2025 年 4 月以來最多，另有一檔 600 億人民幣的人工智慧投資基金在十月開始動用。過去十年，中國股市至少出現三次需要官方出手的空頭走勢，2018 年、2024 年，以及這一次。
這類資金能撐住指數，但它買的是流動性，不是估值。前兩次的經驗是，指數止跌之後，要重新站回前高得靠獲利跟上，不是靠買盤。同一週美國的半導體股也在重挫，兩邊重新定價的其實是同一件事。
資料來源：彭博、上海證券交易所與相關市場報導（圖片來自 @acemaxx）
China's Chip Index Has Fallen Almost Half
China's chip heavy Star50 index has fallen as much as 48% from its late June peak, dropping from around 2,180 to below 1,200 by early November.
The fall did not start with bad news. Traders point to no single trigger. The more concrete factors are stretched valuations, tax considerations around taking profits, and the prospect of tighter US export restrictions. Regulators were simultaneously curbing leveraged and high frequency trading, and state backed investors sold into rallies to cool them.
The number usually skipped is the valuation. The index traded near 250 times earnings at its peak. After falling almost half, it still trades around 100 times. The decline has not made it cheap. It has moved it from extreme to expensive.
State money has arrived. About 128.7 billion yuan flowed into nine exchange traded funds actively traded by state backed investors in a single week, the most since April 2025, and a 60 billion yuan state backed artificial intelligence fund began deploying capital in October. Over the past decade China has had at least three equity routs that drew this kind of official support, in 2018, in 2024, and now.
That money can put a floor under the index, but it buys liquidity rather than value. After the previous two episodes the index stopped falling and then needed earnings to catch up before it recovered. American semiconductor shares fell hard in the same week, and both markets were repricing the same thing.
Source: Bloomberg, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and related market reporting (Image: @acemaxx)