【科技股跌 15%，三倍槓桿基金跌 85% ⚠️】
今年到十一月初，美國科技股從高點回落約 15%，追蹤半導體的三倍槓桿基金 SOXL 卻跌了大約 85%，另一檔槓桿科技基金跌約 55%。
85% 不是 15% 的三倍。三倍槓桿基金每天收盤都會把曝險重設回三倍，所以它追的是每日報酬，不是一段期間的總報酬。價格來回震盪時，這個重設會讓虧損複利。今年六月二十三日，半導體指數基金跌 7.9%，SOXL 單日跌 23.1%；七月一日指數跌 5.7%，它跌 16.4%。幾個這樣的日子疊起來，跟單純乘以三就差得很遠。
反過來也成立。同一個機制在單邊行情裡會給出超過三倍的報酬。今年一月初到七月中，半導體指數基金讓 100 美元變成約 176 美元，SOXL 讓同樣的 100 美元變成約 350 美元，比三倍還多。
所以這不是設計瑕疵，是一筆交換：趨勢順的時候多拿，盤整震盪的時候多賠。發行商在自己的公開說明書裡寫得很直白，這類產品不適合買進長抱。
把時間拉到 2021 到 2025 年，SOXL 的年化報酬約 6.9%，同期沒有槓桿的半導體指數基金約 20%。持有時間越長，這個差距越是單向的。
資料來源：Direxion 公開說明書、基金績效資料與市場報導（圖片來自 @Marcomadness2）
Tech Fell 15% and a 3x Fund Fell 85%
Through early November, US tech is down about 15% from its high this year, while SOXL, a fund that tracks semiconductors with three times daily leverage, is down roughly 85%. Another leveraged tech fund sits between them at about 55%.
Eighty five is not three times fifteen. A 3x fund resets its exposure back to three times at the close of every trading day, so it tracks daily returns rather than the return over a period. When prices move back and forth, that reset compounds losses. On 23 June this year a semiconductor index fund fell 7.9% and SOXL fell 23.1% in one session. On 1 July the index fell 5.7% and the fund fell 16.4%. Stack enough of those days together and the result drifts a long way from a simple multiple.
The same thing works in reverse. In a one way market the mechanism delivers more than three times. From early January to mid July this year, a semiconductor index fund turned 100 dollars into about 176, while SOXL turned the same 100 into about 350.
So this is not a design flaw. It is a trade: more in a trend, worse in chop. The issuer says plainly in its own prospectus that the product is not suitable for buy and hold investors.
Over 2021 to 2025, SOXL returned about 6.9% a year against roughly 20% for the unleveraged semiconductor fund. The longer the holding period, the more that gap points one way.
Source: Direxion prospectus, fund performance data and market reporting (Image: @Marcomadness2)