【12 月降息機率 0%，市場改押升息 🏦】
芝加哥商品交易所的利率期貨顯示，12 月 9 日那場會議降息的機率是 0%，升息到 4.00% 至 4.25% 的機率 76.8%，前一天還是 66.9%。
市場現在爭的已經不是升不升，而是會不會一次升完。
這個轉折有前情。聯準會九月才把利率拉到 3.75% 至 4.00%，那是 2023 年以來第一次升息；十月按兵不動，但票數 10 比 2，有兩位官員當場主張再升一碼。接著十月非農就業新增 16.5 萬人，接近市場預估的三倍，失業率回到 4.1%。原本擋在升息前面的那個理由，也就是勞動市場撐不住，被這份報告拿掉了。
同一張表上有一格比 76.8% 更值得看。一個月前，一次升兩碼的機率還有 16.1%，現在是 0；而升一碼的機率一個月前就已經有 68.4%。所以這個月真正被定價掉的不是「會不會升」，是「會不會又快又猛地升」。
利率路徑從陡峭改成緩步，對債券比對股票友善。風險不在 12 月這一次，而在市場已經先假設升完這一碼就會停。
資料來源：芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 工具（圖片來自 @LizAnnSonders）
Traders Now Put the Odds of a December Rate Cut at Exactly Zero
Fed funds futures price a 76.8% chance that the December 9 meeting lifts the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, up from 66.9% a day earlier. The odds of a cut are zero.
The argument has shifted from whether the Fed hikes to whether it hikes once or more than once.
Some background. The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023, then held in October on a 10-2 vote, with two officials wanting another quarter point. October payrolls then came in at 165,000, close to three times what forecasters expected, and unemployment fell back to 4.1%. The one argument against hiking, that the labour market could not take it, went away with that report.
One row in the table matters more than the 76.8%. A month ago the market gave a half-point move a 16.1% chance; today that is zero, while the quarter-point move was already priced at 68.4% back then. What got priced out this month was speed, not direction.
A flatter path is friendlier to bonds than to equities. The risk sits past December, in an assumption that one more hike ends it.
Source: CME FedWatch Tool (Image: @LizAnnSonders)