【能源類股獲利年增 149%，是指數的五倍 ⛽】
第三季財報結算，標普 500 整體獲利年增 31.4%，九月底的預估值是 29.1%。拆到類股，能源 149.4% 排第一，資訊科技 69.2% 第二，其餘九個類股都在 30% 以下。這一季的獲利成長，有很大一塊是油價漲出來的。
能源公司的獲利跟油價的比較基期直接掛鉤。去年第三季油價低，今年中東衝突把布蘭特原油一度推到 100 美元上下，同樣的產量就能做出一倍半的獲利年增。這種成長不需要新產品、新產能，只需要價格待在高檔；同樣的，只要油價回到去年的水準，這根最長的長條會自己消失。
圖上還有一根沒人提的長條。十一個類股裡，只有通訊服務的數字是往下修的，從九月底預估的 51.5% 掉到實際的 14.1%，等於砍掉七成。其餘十個全部上修。這週市場賣的是人工智慧概念，而財報上真正交不出成績的，正是這兩年把錢花得最兇的那一群。
指數的 31.4% 看起來很健康，拆開來是一個靠油價、一個靠晶片，加上一個正在失速。
資料來源：FactSet 第三季財報統計（圖片來自 @MikeZaccardi）
Energy Earnings Grew 149%, Five Times the Index
With most of the third quarter reported, S&P 500 earnings are up 31.4% from a year ago, against the 29.1% expected on September 30. By sector, energy leads at 149.4% and information technology follows at 69.2%. The other nine sectors are all below 30%. A large part of this quarter's growth came out of the oil price.
Energy profits run straight off the comparison base. Oil was low in the third quarter of last year, and conflict in the Middle East pushed Brent to around $100 this year, so the same barrels produce a one-and-a-half-fold jump in earnings. That growth needs no new product and no new capacity, only a price that stays high, and it disappears on its own if crude returns to last year's level.
There is another bar nobody mentions. Of the eleven sectors, only communication services was revised down, from 51.5% expected on September 30 to 14.1% delivered. The other ten went up. The market spent this week selling the AI trade, and the group that missed on earnings is the one spending the most.
The headline 31.4% looks healthy. Opened up, it is oil, chips, and one sector stalling.
Source: FactSet third-quarter earnings data (Image: @MikeZaccardi)