【美國買電腦設備的錢，回到 2000 年高點 💻】
美國企業投資在電腦與通訊設備上的金額，第三季佔 GDP 的 2.21%。2000 年第四季網路泡沫最高那一季是 2.24%。英國同一個項目在第二季是 0.66%。
以佔經濟的比重算，這一輪硬體投資已經回到網路泡沫那年的規模。
值得注意的是這條線只計算設備，不含軟體。它跟 2000 年比的是同一把尺，不是把今天的雲端服務硬塞進去撐出來的數字。真正的資本支出總量比這條線大得多，光是機房建築和軟體就分別記在別的科目。
佔比這麼高的另一面，是經濟成長已經有一塊靠這筆支出撐著。它不需要衰退，只要停在原地不再往上加，成長率就會少掉那一截。2000 年之後，這條線三年內掉掉約三分之一；設備還在機房裡運轉，停下來的是新訂單。
英國那條線停在 0.66%，差距 1.3 個百分點。少掉的不只是算力，還有採購、安裝、維運一整串的工作機會。同一波技術，兩個國家的帳本長得完全不一樣。
資料來源：美國經濟分析局與英國國家統計局（圖片來自 @SoberLook）
America's Spending on Computer Gear Is Back at Its 2000 Level
US business investment in computers and communications equipment ran at 2.21% of GDP in the third quarter. The dot-com peak, in the fourth quarter of 2000, was 2.24%. Britain's figure for the second quarter was 0.66%.
Measured against the size of the economy, this hardware boom has returned to dot-com scale.
Worth noting: the line counts equipment only and excludes software. It compares today with 2000 on the same ruler, rather than inflating the present by folding in cloud services. Total capital spending is far larger, with data-centre buildings and software booked elsewhere.
The other side of a share that high is that growth now leans on the spending. No recession is required. If the line merely stops rising, that contribution to growth goes away. After 2000 it fell by roughly a third within three years, and the equipment kept running in the server rooms. What stopped was new orders.
Britain sits at 0.66%, a gap of 1.3 percentage points. What it misses is not only computing power but the purchasing, installation and maintenance work that comes with it. Same technology, two very different national accounts.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and UK Office for National Statistics (Image: @SoberLook)