【聯準會 18 位官員,沒有一個認為經濟成長有下行風險】🏛️
在 9 月 16 日公布的經濟預測摘要裡,認為國內生產毛額成長風險偏向下方的聯準會官員人數是零。
這張由 Apollo 整理的圖從 2011 年開始,期間從來沒有出現過零。2024 年底這個人數一度接近 18 人,也就是幾乎全員;2022 年中約 17 人;2019 與 2020 年在 13 到 14 人之間。今年 7 月的會議紀錄還寫著,官員認為就業與實質成長的風險偏向下方。兩個月之內,這個數字歸零。
零不等於樂觀。同一份預測裡,18 位官員中有 15 位認為核心通膨的風險偏向上方,委員會把 2026 與 2027 年的成長預測各上調 0.1 個百分點到 2.3% 與 2.4%。風險評估不是在講事情會不會變好,而是在講「如果預測錯了,比較可能往哪個方向錯」。今年 9 月的答案是:比較可能是通膨高於預期,而不是成長低於預期。
這解釋了利率市場最近的變化。當央行的擔憂全部集中在通膨那一側,寬鬆的門檻就被拉高,升息的門檻則被拉低。
也不該把這份預測讀成確定性。同一份文件估算,即使風險大致平衡,今年實際成長率落在 1.6% 到 4.4% 之間的機率約七成。官員的意思是不確定性沒有偏向哪一邊,不是不確定性消失了。
資料來源: 聯準會經濟預測摘要、摩根資產管理、諮商會 (圖片來自 @Barchart)
Not One of the Fed's 18 Officials Sees Downside Risk to Growth
In the Summary of Economic Projections released on 16 September, the number of Federal Reserve officials who judged risks to GDP growth as weighted to the downside was zero.
The series, compiled by Apollo, starts in 2011 and has never printed zero before. The count reached almost 18, effectively the entire committee, in late 2024. It sat near 17 in mid-2022 and between 13 and 14 during 2019 and 2020. The minutes of July's meeting still described risks to both employment and real growth as skewed to the downside. Two months later the count is nil.
Zero is not optimism. In the same projections, 15 of the 18 participants saw risks to core inflation weighted to the upside, and the committee raised its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by a tenth of a point each, to 2.3% and 2.4%. A risk assessment does not say whether things will go well. It says which direction the forecast is more likely to be wrong in. This September the answer is inflation running hotter, not growth coming in weaker.
That shift explains what has been happening in rate markets. Once a central bank's worries sit entirely on the inflation side, the bar for easing rises and the bar for tightening falls.
None of this should be read as certainty. The same document estimates that even with balanced risks, there is roughly a 70% chance actual growth this year lands somewhere between 1.6% and 4.4%. The officials are saying the uncertainty no longer leans one way, not that it has gone.
Source: the Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, J.P. Morgan Asset Management and the Conference Board (Image: @Barchart)