【美國標售 5 年期公債,拿到 2006 年以來最貴的利率】🏛️
美國財政部週二標售 700 億美元 5 年期公債,得標利率 5.033%,是 2006 年 6 月以來最高。
比利率更難看的是需求。投標倍數 2.212,2018 年 12 月以來最低;包含外國央行在內的間接投標人只拿走 54.3%,上一場還有 61.5%。得標利率比標售前的市場價高出約 3 個基點,圖上那根紅棒是 2018 年以來最長的一根。
兩週前完全相反。9 月 10 日的 30 年期標售,間接投標人拿走 79.5%,史上第二高,一級交易商只分到 2.21%,創紀錄新低。同一個發行人、相隔兩週,長天期被搶,中天期乏人問津。
差別在於這兩段押的是不同的事。30 年期押未來幾十年的平均利率,殖利率站上 5.3% 之後,退休金與保險公司這類長錢開始覺得划算。5 年期押的是接下來幾年的政策利率路徑,而市場正在上調聯準會再升息的機率,此時買中天期等於押利率已經見頂。
單場標售不算趨勢,月底還有 7 年期要標。但訊息很明確:目前難賣的不是美國公債,是需要對聯準會下判斷的那幾個天期。
資料來源: 美國財政部標售結果、Bloomberg (圖片來自 @zerohedge)
The US Sold Five-Year Notes at Its Highest Yield Since 2006
The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes on Tuesday at 5.033%, the highest yield on that maturity since June 2006.
The demand numbers look worse than the yield. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.212, the lowest since December 2018, and indirect bidders, the group that includes foreign central banks, took 54.3% against 61.5% at the previous auction. The notes cleared about 3 basis points above where the market had priced them beforehand, the widest gap on the chart since 2018.
Two weeks earlier the picture was the opposite. At the 30-year auction on 10 September, indirect bidders took 79.5%, the second-highest share ever recorded, and primary dealers were left with just 2.21%, a record low. Same issuer, two weeks apart, and the long end was fought over while the belly went begging.
The two maturities are bets on different things. A 30-year bond is a bet on average rates over decades, and above 5.3% pension funds and insurers start to find that attractive. A five-year note is a bet on the policy rate path over the next few years, and markets are currently raising the odds of another hike. Buying the belly now means betting rates have already peaked.
One auction is not a trend, and seven-year notes come to market at the end of the month. But the message is specific: the hard part is not selling US government debt. It is selling the maturities that require a call on the Federal Reserve.
Source: US Treasury auction results and Bloomberg (Image: @zerohedge)