【全球最大的鎳加工國換成印尼,爐子的主人沒換】🏭
印尼 2023 年的加工鎳產量達 141 萬噸,2021 年超越中國成為全球最大。2015 年之前,印尼在這條曲線上幾乎還貼著零。
推動這件事的是一紙禁令。印尼 2020 年 1 月全面禁止鎳原礦出口,想用印尼的礦就得在印尼設廠冶煉,冶煉產能因此從中國搬到了蘇拉威西。搬走的是爐子,不是股權:中資企業目前掌握印尼約七成五的鎳冶煉產能,光是青山控股與江蘇德龍兩家就超過七成,青山在印尼最大的莫羅瓦利工業園持股約 66%。中國自己的加工鎳產量在同一段時間先下滑後回升,因為原料被斷,改從印尼進口半成品。
還有一個常被跳過的區分。印尼的產出大多是不鏽鋼用的鎳生鐵與鎳鐵,不是電池需要的高純度鎳,兩者不能直接換算。另外這張排名用的是 2023 年的估計值,不是最新年度。
資料來源: 英國地質調查局 World Mineral Statistics、美國國際貿易委員會 (圖片來自 @OurWorldInData)
Indonesia Is Now the Biggest Nickel Processor. The Smelters Changed Hands Less
Indonesia processed 1.41 million tonnes of nickel in 2023, having overtaken China in 2021 to become the world's largest producer. Before 2015 its line on this chart sat close to zero.
A single ban did most of the work. In January 2020 Indonesia stopped all exports of raw nickel ore, so anyone wanting Indonesian nickel had to smelt it inside Indonesia, and processing capacity moved from China to Sulawesi. What moved was the furnaces, not the ownership. Chinese companies control roughly 75% of Indonesia's nickel refining capacity, with Tsingshan Holding Group and Jiangsu Delong alone accounting for more than 70%, and Tsingshan holding about 66% of the Morowali industrial park, the country's largest nickel complex. China's own processed output dipped and then recovered over the same period, because its ore supply was cut off and it began importing semi-processed material from Indonesia instead.
One distinction often gets skipped. Most Indonesian output is nickel pig iron and ferronickel for stainless steel, not the high-purity nickel batteries need, and the two do not convert directly into each other. The ranking also uses 2023 estimates rather than the most recent year.
Source: British Geological Survey World Mineral Statistics and the US International Trade Commission (Image: @OurWorldInData)